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Infonetics: Self Organizing Networks & Performance Optimization Strategies

Overview:
Market research firm Infonetics Research released excerpts from its new  Self-Organizing Network (SON) and Optimization Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey, for which Infonetics interviewed wireless, incumbent, and competitive operators around the world about their network optimization strategies and SON deployment plans.

ANALYST NOTE: 
"While SON is up and running in a few LTE networks around the world, we were surprised to find that some of the large
incumbents we surveyed for our SON and optimization study have deployed SON as the key optimization tool in their 3G networks as well," reports Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics at Infonetics Research. "Since SON was originally developed for LTE, this finding is fascinating and draws to a close the debate over whether SON could be used in legacy networks."

SON AND OPTIMIZATION SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS:
.    The chief drivers for deploying SON are opex reduction; improvement in capacity, quality, and network performance; and small cell usage in the network.
.    Automatic neighbor relations (ANR) is the most deployed SON feature among respondent operators

.    80% of operators interviewed rate complexity as the #1 barrier to deploying SON 

.    Survey respondents view Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia Siemens Networks as the top SON vendors

.    A majority of respondents consider SON an unproven and immature technology

In an email exchange with this author, Stephane Teral wrote:  “Infonetics Research doesn’t cover Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) in our Mobile Infrastructure report, but we know it’s a $1B/year market – tiny compared to $45 to $50B/year for mobile infrastructure which was in that report which was cited in your viodi.com article. Small cells will be part of a whole strategy along with carrier aggregation, Self Organizing Networks (SON), etc… to address capacity issues in specific areas.”

SURVEY SYNOPSIS:
For its new 24-page SON and optimization survey, Infonetics interviewed independent wireless, incumbent, and competitive operators in Europe, North America, and Asia about their network optimization strategies and SON deployment plans. The study provides insights into SON features, drivers, implementation barriers, technical challenges, and vendors. Operators surveyed together represent 1/3 of the world's telecom capex and carrier revenue and 16% of all mobile subscribers.

To buy the survey, contact Infonetics: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

RELATED INFONETICS RESEARCH:
.    Latest Infonetics Mobile, Wireless, and Small Cells research brief: http://bit.ly/SL16eJ
.    LTE jumps 30% in Q3, NSN doubles LTE revenue; mobile gear set for growth in 2013
.    Japan's mobile market grows 3-fold on the wings of LTE, China puts 3G first
.    3G and 4G self-organizing network (SON) software market set to double in 2013
.    Telecom outsourcing, managed services a $76 billion opportunity by 2016
.    Small cell is the buzz but DAS (Distributed Antenna System) is the biz, say operators in latest Infonetics survey
.    Femtocells offer opportunity to put the mobile network at the heart of the home network
.    Femtocell market spikes 12% in Q2; Alcatel-Lucent nabs W-CDMA femto lead
.    A first: Increased ARPU now a top driver for LTE upgrades
.    Mobile broadband will push mobile services to $976 billion by 2016; SMS, voice persevere
.    Voice over LTE gaining momentum (at long last)

Related Article (published today, with comments from Stephane Teral):
http://viodi.com/2012/12/05/infonetics-mobile-infrastructure-market-down-in-quarter-small-cells-not-so-hot/

What about Small Cells for spectrum re-use as a mobile access performance optimization strategy?

Some believe that Small Cells will solve the mobile data capacity crunch. Alcatel-Lucent: “Small cells could solve the mobile broadband capacity crunch. A number of reports have identified the metro market as one of the driving factors in femtocell growth as operators use femtocells to provide fill-in coverage for congested metro areas..”  http://tinyurl.com/asfzuk4

Infonetics' Stephane Teral wrote in an email, "Small cells will be part of a whole strategy along with carrier aggregation, Self Organizing Networks (SON), etc… to address capacity issues in specific areas.”

Also: http://www.thinksmallcell.com/Guest-Post/guest-postwhy-i-believe-small-cells-will-solve-the-mobile-data-capacity-crunch.html

Dell'Oro Group: Moderate Growth for Access Network Equipment with PONs leading the pack

In it's new Quarterly Access report, Dell' Oro Group says sales of access network equipment (i.e. for PON, DSL, and cable hybrid fiber/coax (HFC) ) grew by a “moderate” 6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2012.  PON systems were the leading segment, advancing 21% over the same quarter of 2011.  Cable access networks (MSOs) grew 5% annually. 

Overall DSL equipment sales declined versus the year-ago quarter, because a decrease in ADSL revenues offset 30% growth in VDSL revenues.  In the growing VDSL segment, Alcatel-Lucent and Huawei again held the top two slots, with ADTRAN at number three.

“We saw strong growth from three segments in the third quarter. PON revenue surged to a record level, largely driven by strong GPON shipments to China, continuing the trend of the last several years,” said Steve Nozik, principal analyst of access research at Dell’Oro Group. “Cable revenue growth was driven by strong DOCSIS 3.0 CPE sales that more than offset sharply lower CMTS sales.

“For DSL, high-speed VDSL port shipments grew more than 50% over the year ago period driven by Western Europe, where a number of operators have chosen a fiber-to-the-node (FTTN) upgrade strategy utilizing VDSL,” Nozik said.

Alcatel-Lucent, Huawei, and ZTE won the quarter in the GPON space; excluding sales in China, however, Calix is moving into the third position, the report states.

in the first quarter, Cisco (e.g Scientific Atlanta), with near record shipments, was the lead vendor in terms of Cable CPE unit shipments.  Arris was next with its strongest shipment quarter in over a year followed by Netgear which saw its Cable CPE shipments reach a record level.

The Dell’Oro Group Quarterly Access Report provides tables that cover manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for cable, DSL, and PON equipment.

References:

http://www.delloro.com/news/2012/Acc120412.htm

http://www.delloro.com/services_access.htm

http://www.delloro.com/serviceareas/actofc.pdf

 

Infonetics: Ethernet Access Device market highlights; Ethernet microwave gear up 5% due to backhaul demand

Market research firm Infonetics Research latest Ethernet Access Devices report includes market size, market share, and forecasts - for both copper and fiber optic Ethernet Access Devices (EADs).

ETHERNET ACCESS DEVICES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
.  Globally, the Ethernet access device market fell 4% in the first half of 2012 (1H12) from the second half of 2011 (2H11), despite growth in the EFM (Ethernet First Mile) bonded copper EAD segment
.    Infonetics forecasts the EAD market to top $1.3 billion by 2016
.    While North America, where EADs first took off, remains the largest market with 54% revenue share in 1H12, Latin America is the fastest-growing region for EADs
.    ADVA took the lead in global Ethernet access device revenue share in 1H12, followed by Ciena, Overture, and
Actelis
.    Actelis continues to lead the fast-growing EFM bonded copper EAD segment

EAD REPORT SYNOPSIS:

Infonetics' biannual Ethernet access devices report provides worldwide and regional market size, vendor market share,
forecasts, analysis, and trends for copper EADs (EFM bonded copper, Ethernet over TDM bonded circuits), fiber EADs, copper EAD ports (100M), and fiber EAD ports (100M, 1G, 10G, 100G). Companies tracked include Accedian, Actelis,
Adtran, ADVA, Axerra, Canoga Perkins, Ciena, FibroLAN, IPITEK, MRV, Omnitron OMS, Overture, RAD, Tellabs, Telco Systems, Zhone, and others.

Analyst Comment:

"With so many operators moving to fiber as they upgrade building sites and mobile backhaul from TDM to Ethernet, fiber-based EADs will remain a much bigger market than copper EADs," anticipates Michael Howard, principal analyst for carrier networks and co-founder of Infonetics Research. "That said, it is clear that a growing number of mobile backhaul
operators and transport providers are turning to EFM (Ethernet First Mile-IEEE 802.3ah standard) bonded copper technology, taking advantage of its extended reach and capacity in many applications and locations where fiber is too expensive for the return on investment. In fact, EFM bonded copper EAD sales were up while fiber and Ethernet over TDM EAD sales were down in the first half of 2012."

"TDM-based EADs aside, the EAD market is growing nicely on an annual basis, strongly influenced by healthy Ethernet service uptake. We expect operators to spend close to $5.6 billion cumulative on EADs over the five years from 2012 to 2016."

To buy the report, contact Infonetics Sales: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

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Infonetics Research released excerpts from its 3rd quarter 2012 (3Q12) Microwave Equipment market size, market share, and forecast report, which analyzes time-division multiplexing (TDM), Ethernet, and dual Ethernet/TDM microwave equipment by spectrum, capacity, form factor, and architecture.

"The microwave equipment market held steady overall in the 3rd quarter, with wildly varying results across segments," reports Richard Webb, directing analyst for microwave, mobile offload, and mobile broadband devices at Infonetics Research. "Current trends will continue, with TDM microwave equipment declining precipitously; the large dual-mode TDM/Ethernet microwave segment waning as well but at a much slower rate; and Ethernet-only microwave equipment
surging year after year, powered by sustained mobile macrocell backhaul demand."

Webb adds: "Among the top 3 players in the market, leader Ericsson posted a 7% revenue gain to give them nearly a quarter of the global market, their strongest standing since early 2011; Huawei, who had more than doubled their microwave revenue the previous quarter, saw a 19% decline this quarter; and NEC's microwave revenue rose 17%, putting them within 1 market share point of Huawei. Alcatel-Lucent continue to lead the fast-growing Ethernet microwave segment."


 

MICROWAVE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
.    While flat quarter-over-quarter in 3Q12, the worldwide microwave equipment market is down 4% from the year-ago 3rd quarter, to $1.24 billion, weighed down by flagging sales of TDM and dual TDM/Ethernet microwave equipment
.    Meanwhile, the Ethernet microwave equipment segment is up 5% year-over-year and is forecast by Infonetics to grow at a 38% CAGR from 2011 to 2016
.    In 3Q12, backhaul equipment made up 85% of total microwave revenue

.    EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) accounted for the highest regional proportion of microwave revenue, ahead of Asia Pacific, North America, and Latin America

REPORT SYNOPSIS:
Infonetics' quarterly microwave equipment report provides worldwide and regional market size, vendor market share,
forecasts, analysis, and trends for Ethernet, TDM, and hybrid microwave equipment by spectrum, capacity, form factor, and architecture. Companies tracked include Alcatel-Lucent, Aviat Networks, Ceragon, DragonWave, ECI Telecom, Ericsson, Exalt, Huawei, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, ZTE, and others.

To buy the report, contact Infonetics Sales: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

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Small Cells will have a HUGE effect on Microwave Backhaul:

There is industry-wide agreement that "small cells" are going to be needed but a marked lack of consensus on exactly what kinds of small cells will be needed and when; how they will be deployed; and how Ethernet backhaul networks will need to be optimized and adapted to support them.

Infonetics' Michael Howard discussed this topic at the Oct 2012 IEEE ComSocSCV meeting.  He said, "When small cells are installed (likely in 2013-2014), they will be mounted on light poles and street lights in downtown metro areas.  They'll use microwave backhaul to reach a macro aggregation cell, which will most likely be located in a cell tower with fiber connectivity and backhaul to the ISP or other carrier's point of presence."

It appears that forthcoming small cell mobile backhaul (MBH) will mostly use microwave & mm transmission systems, while MBH for macro cells will be a mix of millimeter wave and fiber.  

The entire meeting report is available at: 

http://community.comsoc.org/blogs/alanweissberger/comsocscv-oct-meeting-mobile-backhaul-significance-lte-small-cells-macro-cells


Infonetics study details enterprise plans for cloud services; firm sees virtualization boosting application delivery controllers

Market research firm Infonetics Research released excerpts from its new Cloud Service Strategies: North American Enterprise Survey, which explores enterprises’ plans for the adoption and usage of cloud services.

“There is no doubt, the cloud has come of age,” notes Sam Barnett, directing analyst for data center and cloud at Infonetics Research. “While investments in cloud outsourcing are small in comparison to internal IT/data center spending, they are growing each year, with the number of enterprise organizations turning to cloud technology to manage budgets and transform service delivery increasing significantly in the last two years.”

Barnett adds: “The cloud is no longer about outsourcing IT infrastructure and functions-it’s about right-sizing them.”

CLOUD SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS:
.    91% of enterprises interviewed use cloud services today, growing to 100% by the end of 2014
.    The leading drivers for deploying cloud services are application performance and management of IT costs
.    Software as a service (SaaS) is the most widely adopted cloud technology among respondent operators
.    Survey respondents cite Microsoft, IBM, and Cisco as the top cloud service providers, although unexpected vendors dominate the cloud landscape in key technology deployment areas

SURVEY SYNOPSIS:
For its 25-page cloud service strategies survey, Infonetics interviewed purchase-decision makers at 107 North American enterprises about their current usage of cloud services as well as their plans for deploying cloud-based services through 2014. Survey participants were asked about cloud service delivery types (SaaS, IaaS, and PaaS), uses, deployment drivers, barriers, and vendors.
To buy the survey, contact Infonetics Sales: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

For the latest in Cloud Data Center & Networking trends, please see:

http://viodi.com/2012/11/30/trends-in-cloud-data-center-networking-mobile-apps-from-the-server-design-summit/

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Separately, Infonetics Research released preliminary results for the application delivery controller (ADC) and wide area network (WAN) optimization markets from its 3rd quarter 2012 (3Q12) Data Center Network Equipment report.
(Full report will be published December 7, 2012)

"While ADCs and WAN optimization appliances posted modest revenue gains in the 3rd quarter, the pace of growth in these segments decelerated year-over-year," notes Sam Barnett, directing analyst for data center and cloud at Infonetics Research. "Top-line revenue growth in the ADC market is slowing due to the lower ASPs associated with virtual solutions versus their hardware-based counterparts, and saturation at the high end of the WAN optimization market is pressuring near-term growth."

Barnett adds, "We believe this will change as more virtualized solutions enter the mainstream, helping to restore higher levels of overall growth to the WAN optimization and application delivery controllers markets."

DATA CENTER NETWORK EQUIPMENT MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
.   Worldwide ADC revenue rose 5% in 3Q12 from 2Q12, but year-over-year (YoY) growth decelerated again and now stands at +6%, falling from +27% YoY growth in 3Q11
.    F5 continues to lead the pack in ADCs, capturing nearly half of 3Q12 revenue; Citrix and Cisco round out the top 3 market share slots
.    Cisco recently announced its intention to exit the ADC market, presenting an opportunity for F5 and Citrix to grow market share going forward
.    WAN optimization revenue grew 3% sequentially in 3Q12, but is down 4% from the year-ago 3rd quarter
.    Perennial leader Riverbed again dominated the WAN optimization segment in 3Q12, with almost 3/5 market share; Cisco remains solidly in 2nd place

REPORT SYNOPSIS:
Infonetics' quarterly data center network equipment report provides worldwide and regional market size, vendor market share, forecasts, analysis, and trends for data center Ethernet switches (general purpose, purpose-built, and blade switches), ADCs, and WAN optimization appliances. Companies tracked include Alcatel-Lucent, Blue Coat, Brocade, Cisco, Citrix, Dell, F5, HP, IBM (BNT), Juniper, Radware, Riverbed, and others.

To buy the report, contact Infonetics Sales: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

IEEE Stds Association & ETSI Renew Their Memorandum of Understanding to Co-ordinate Standards Activities

The IEEE Standards Association (IEEE-SA) and the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) today announced they have renewed their memorandum of understanding (MOU). This agreement continues the long-standing cooperation between IEEE-SA and ETSI, fosters collaboration between the two organizations, and further promotes mutual interests through global standards coordination.


To formally acknowledge the alliance, Luis Jorge Romero, director-general of ETSI, and Konstantinos Karachalios, managing director for IEEE-SA, gathered with members of the Institute for a signing ceremony during the 60th ETSI General Assembly in Mandelieu, France on 13 November 2012. During the ceremony, the two organizations acknowledged the need for IEEE-SA and ETSI to work closely together on coordinated standards to avoid duplicated work and align under a mutually beneficial framework.

“ETSI is the ideal partner for IEEE-SA’s continued progress on expanding cooperation between technical committees with a global reach,” said Karachalios. “Sharing information is the key factor here. Collaboration between governing bodies is top of mind. It’s all part of our vision for widespread adoption of globally
relevant standards and our commitment to work cohesively with standards organizations around the world.”

“The framework for coordination between technical groups will greatly benefit industry as it increasingly relies on
standards for interoperability,” said Romero. “This agreement will allow ETSI representatives to become more knowledgeable about IEEE activities and vice versa, of course.”

AW Comment:  The renewal of the MOU fosters continued collaboration and increases global visibility and coordination of standards activities.  It is a big positive for the industry.


To follow ETSI on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/ETSI_Standards.

To learn more about IEEE-SA, visit their Facebook page at
http://www.facebook.com/ieeesa, follow them on Twitter at
http://www.twitter.com/ieeesa, connect with them on LinkedIn at
http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1791118 or visit the Standards Insight Blog at
http://www.standardsinsight.com.

IEEE 802.16 (WIMAX) Session #82 Report: M2M, Hetnets & Small Cell Backhaul progressed!

This report was written by Roger Marks (r.b.marks@ieee.org)

Chair, IEEE 802.16 Working Group on Broadband Wireless Access Standards

==========================================================================================

IEEE 802.16's Session #82 was held on 12-15 Nov 2012 in San Antonio, TX, USA. This was an IEEE 802 LMSC Plenary Session and co-located with sessions of the other IEEE 802 Working Groups and Technical Advisory Groups. The attendance was 24 (down substantially from the hundreds that previously attended these meetings).

New Publications

Two amendment standards developed by the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Task Group were published by IEEE-SA:IEEE Std 802.16p-2012 (2012-10-08) and IEEE Std 802.16.1b-2012 (2012-10-10). Both are available for sale, currently at $5.
During Session #82, awards were presented to leading participants in the development of these standards, as well as of IEEE Std 802.16-2012 and IEEE Std 802.16.1-2012.

HetNet Study Group

The IEEE 802.16 WG Study Group (SG)
on the WirelessMAN Radio Interface in Heterogeneous Networks (HetNet Study Group) met for the fourth and
final time. It addressed three separate topics:

  • OmniRAN
    The Study Group prepared a request to initiate a new IEEE 802 Executive Committee OmniRAN Study Group. The 802 EC approved the request and initiated the Study Group through the March 2013 802 Plenary, with an expectation of renewal through the March 2013 802 Plenary. The first meeting takes place during the week of 14 January in Vancouver.
  • Small Cell Backhaul
    Following modification based on inputs and discussions, the Project Authorization Request (PAR) PAR P802.16r, for a project on Small-Cell Backhaul (SCB) Enhancements to WirelessMAN-OFDMA, was forwarded by the IEEE 802 Executive Committee for IEEE-SA approval, expected on 5 December. A followup Call for Contributions was issued. The WG submitted a liaison statement to several external organizations (Metro Ethernet Forum, NGMN Alliance, Small Cell
    Forum, and WiMAX Forum) requesting views and input regarding technical requirements.
  • Multi-tier
    Work on developing IEEE Project PAR P802.16q continued with the consideration of input documents. A followup Call for Contributions was issued toward Session #83.

 

The HetNet Study Group concluded its work and was terminated as of the end of Session #82. Study Group issued a closing report, with minutes to follow.

Project P802.16.3

In the second session of the development of the P802.16.3 project on Mobile Broadband Network Performance
Measurements, six input contributions were reviewed. A new draft Working Document, on Architecture and Requirements Document for Mobile Broadband Network Performance was completed. A Call for Contributions was completed, primarily to further the development of that new Working Document. A report to external organizations was completed to summarize project progress and request views.  The work on Project P802.16.3 was conducted under the auspices of the Metrology Study Group, which concluded its work and was terminated as of the end of Session #82. The Study Group issued a closing report and minutes.

GRIDMAN Task Group

The Working Group's GRIDMAN Task Group resolved comments received during the first recirculations of Sponsor Ballot of the drafts of P802.16n and IEEE P802.16.1a. Approval of both documents stands at 100%, with 82 approve votes. In each case, the 802 EC granted conditional approval to submit the drafts for RevCom approval, following successful
recirculation. An additional recirculation is planned for December, with comment resolution at Session #83. The TG issued a closing report and minutes.

ITU-R Liaison Group

The ITU-R Liaison Group reviewed contributions from ITU-R Working Party 5D. It developed a contribution to WP 5D on the use of IMT for broadband PPDR, which was agreed by the IEEE 802 EC. The Liaison Group will meet at Session #83 to consider additional contributions to WP 5D and address other topics. Contributions are invited. For more details, see the closing report and updated workplan.

Project Planning Committee

The WG's Project Planning Committee confirmed the IEEE 802.16 Ballot Schedules. The PPC agreed to a Standards Information Form describing IEEE Std 802.16 for consideration by the IEEE 802.24 Smart Grid TAG. It also agreed to a
Call for Contributions on Proximity based Direct Communications and issued a closing report.

Future Meetings


IEEE 802 Executive Committee Actions
The Working Group's issues at the 802 LMSC Executive Committee meeting of 16 November were approved.

Documents
The Session #82 Document Guide includes references to all session documents. Draft standards are available with a working group password or by purchase from IEEE-SA. Most IEEE 802.16 standards are available for free download via the Get IEEE 802® program. See the 802.16 publication list for details of published standards and drafts.

 

About IEEE 802.16
The IEEE 802.16 Working Group on Broadband Wireless Access Standards has developed and is enhancing the
WirelessMAN® standards of IEEE 802.16 and 802.16.1 for wireless metropolitan area networks. It is also developing the IEEE P802.16.3 project on Mobile Broadband Network Performance Measurements. The IEEE 802.16 Working Group
is a unit of the IEEE 802 LAN/MAN Standards Committee, the premier transnational forum for wired and wireless network
standardization.

A list of IEEE 802.16 standards and drafts is available on-line, as is an archive of previous Session Reports. The IEEE 802.16 Interactive Calendar includes sessions and deadlines.

Summary of Nov 2nd Wireless Symposium Sponsored by Joint Venture Silicon Valley

Joint Venture Silicon Valley brings together SV leaders in various business sectors to address the areas most pressing problems.  One of them is wireless communications infrastructure.  It's ironic that SV leads the world in developing new, innovative technologies but is a laggard in deploying them locally.  For example, it has taken as long as five years to review and approve an application to build wireless facilities.  JVSV says the region must lead by setting an example of how to balance a national imperative with community interests.

A Wireless Communications Initiative was launched by JVSV in 2010.  It's key goals and objectives are as follows:

  • Advocate in the Local Jurisdictions – Provide a strong regional voice speaking to the competitive and economic implications of a robust wireless infrastructure.
  • Educate Public and Private Sector Stakeholders – Identify key stakeholders in cities and educate them on the critical issues affecting the growth of the wireless industry. Similarly, educate the wireless industry on how to partner with cities.
  • Promote Model Ordinances/ Practices – Work with cities to develop best practices and guidelines for wireless technology deployment.

 

The Wireless Coalition is part of this initiative.  The coaltion promotes the deployment of wireless technology as a means to encourage economic growth, national competitiveness and public safety. The Coalition will include businesses, elected officials, individuals, business and community organizations. We see the emerging technology as an opportunity for Silicon Valley to lead a new wave of innovation. 

Currently, the Wireless Coalition is working with local government and the wireless industry to promote the deployment of a robust Wireless Infrastructure in Silicon Valley. It's 2012 Activities included:

  • New Goal – 4G/ LTE available from major carriers in half of Silicon Valley cities by 2014
  • Increase public awareness through use of media and community outreach
  •  Established Cities and Carriers Roundtable
  • Support cities in considering initiatives to deploy wireless technology
  • Completed property value research detailing the impact of wireless facilities. 
  • —Study revealed no difference in value amongst 70 wireless sites selected in Palo Alto, Redwood City, Saratoga and San Jose, CA

In conclusion, Leon Beauchman; Director, Wireless Communications Initiative wrote,

"Silicon Valley must work towards maintaining its leadership in the evolution of wireless technology. Thousands of
jobs and hundreds of local companies are directly tied to the industry. Our region should lead in deploying a 21st century wireless infrastructure that will further promote our economic competitiveness."

Editors Note: Leon did an outstanding job organizing and chairing this very informative Wireless Symposium!

See below for Congresswomen Anna Eschoo's keynote, link to summary of Google's talk, and information on Silicon Valley Regional Interoperability for public agenciesThere were also many wireless applications discussed at this JVSV Wireless Symposium. More information,including slides of some presentations is at:

http://www.jointventure.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=801&Itemid=615 

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How can public policy expedite building a 21st century communications infrastructure? Congresswoman Anna Eshoo,  Ranking Member of the Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Communications and Technology addressed that topic in her keynote presentation.  Her main message:  JVSC should focus on what Silicon Valley needs to do inorder to have a world class, 21st century wireless infrastructure.  Here were the key points she made:

  • U.S. mobile data traffic grew at almost 300% last year and will grow 16 times by 2016.
  • Freeing up more spectrum should be a top priority for U.S. regulators (FCC and state PUCs) and Congress
  • Only once in a decade does Congress take up reallocation of spectrum, e.g. from over the air TV broadcasters to wireless boradband network providers.  That time is now!
  • Congress has worked 15 months to pass bi-partisan legislation which authorized the FCC to conduct incentive auctions of spectrum whereby TV broadcasters would voluntarily release spectrum for use by wireless broadband providers.  There's potential to re-purpose 120MHz of such spectrum for wireless broadband access. 
  • $25B is expected to be raised by the incentive auctions with $15B of that going to the U.S. government to reduce the national debt.
  •  A 21st century spectrum policy must be balanced between licensed and unlicensed spectrum.
  •  U.S. is a world-wide leader in use of unlicensed spectrum, with WiFi/Blue Tooth devices generating $50B of revenues for U.S. based companies.
  •  Congress should look at how Federal agencies could use the spectrum they own more efficiently.
  •  The PCAST committee has made several recommendations related to U.S. spectrum policy.

 

In conclusion, Congresswomen Eschoo said, "Wireless broadband is an engine for job creation and economic growth."  She invited interested parties to make their views known to their Congress person for more effective policy toward achievement of this goal.

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Summary of Google's presentation on White Spaces is at:

http://viodi.com/2012/11/13/google-advocates-unlicensed-spectrum-sharing-via-tv-white-spaces-for-wireless-broadband-access/

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Public Safety and Emergency Response:

Silicon Valley Regional Interoperability Authority (SVRIA) was formed in 2010 under the Joint Exercise of Powers Act, California Government Code Section 6500 et seq. to provide interoperable communications solutions to its members. SVRIA supersedes the Silicon Valley Regional Interoperability Project, established in 1998 by the Police and Fire Chiefs Associations and the County and City Managers Association.

Purpose and Mission: The Silicon Valley Regional Interoperability Authority (SVRIA) exists to identify, coordinate and implement communications interoperability solutions to its member agencies. The purpose of these projects is to seamlessly integrate voice and data communications between law enforcement, the fire and rescue service, emergency medical services and emergency management for routine operations, critical incidents and disaster response and recovery. SVRIA also provides strategic planning support for its members.

http://www.svria.org/about-us 

 

ETSI launches Cloud Standards Coordination Program with kick-off workshop in Cannes on 4-5 December 2012

By 2015, the worldwide market for cloud products and services is estimated to reach between €50bn and €80bn. Already there are numerous cloud services on offer, presenting radical new business opportunities which are both disruptive and beneficial at once.

In order to address the specific challenges of cloud computing, in September 2012 the European Commission released a Communication on Cloud computing. This identifies the proliferation of standards and a lack of certainty of which standards to use as some of the key factors holding back the widespread use of cloud computing. 

To this end, the European Commission has requested ETSI to coordinate with stakeholders and identify a detailed map of required standards in areas such as security, interoperability, data portability and reversibility.

ETSI is launching the Cloud Standards Coordination on 4-5 December 2012 in Cannes (France) with a number of partner organizations. A series of brainstorming sessions will enable participants to freely discuss cloud standards requirements.

ETSI is uniquely placed to perform this task, with a broad membership of over 750 organizations from Europe and beyond drawn from the telecommunications and IT industries, a global network of partner organizations, and technical committees (Cloud, Electronic Signatures and Infrastructures, Lawful Interception) producing specifications for cloud services. 

The event is open to all stakeholders and registration is free. Further details are available at: www.etsi.org/csc.

For more information about ETSI’s Cloud Standards Coordination please contact: 

 Margot Dor,  Tel: +33 4 92 94 49 10  Email: margot.dor@etsi.org


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About ETSI
ETSI produces globally-applicable standards for Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), including fixed, mobile, radio, converged, aeronautical, broadcast and internet technologies and is officially recognized by the European Union as a European Standards Organization. ETSI is an independent, not-for-profit association whose more than 750 member companies and organizations, drawn from 62 countries across 5 continents worldwide, determine its work programme and participate directly in its work.
For more information please visit: 
www.etsi.org
 

The ETSI logo is a Trade Mark of ETSI registered for the benefit of its Members.

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Comment:

Let's hope ETSI's Cloud initiative succeeds as IEEE's has failed dismally with no follow up or notice to those who attended their kickoff meeting in summer of 2011.

7 Enterprise Cloud Computing Trends To Watch:

http://www.crn.com/slide-shows/cloud/240062621/7-enterprise-cloud-comput...

Infonetics: Femtocells being positioned as a a home network for voice & mobile BB ; Complementary to WiFi

The telecom industry has talked about Femtocells for years, but not much has happened outside of AT&T giving away femtocell equipment to folks buying iPhones in rural areas (like my cabin in Blue Lake Springs, CA where AT&T doesn't provide cellular service of any kind).  Here's an article I wrote on this topic over 3 1/2 years ago:

http://viodi.com/2009/03/21/wca-panel-session-femtocells-and-their-consequences-for-mobile-broadband-technologies/

Yesterday, Infonetics Research completed interviews with more than 25% of the network operators in the world that have already launched or plan to launch femtocell services by 2013.

Excerpts follow from the resulting report, Residential Femtocell Service Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey, follow.  The report assesses operator needs and analyzes trends in the femtocell market.

FEMTOCELL SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS:
. The top drivers for offering residential femtocell services are improving mobile broadband and voice within the home, and offloading data traffic from macro cellular networks

. 29% of operators surveyed plan to offer FD-LTE femtocell services by 2013

. WiFi, long seen as a competitor to the growth of femtocells in the home, is increasingly being viewed as complimentary by carriers
 (AJW comment: Competition from WiFi has been a real sticking point for residential femtocell deployments, especially with so many VoIP/OTP voice services that use WiFi for broadband Internet access)

. Service provider respondents project they will have, on average, 211,000 femtocell subscribers by 2013

(AJW comment:  The other huge obstacle for residential femtocells is that the wireless traffic generated/received goes on the wired broadband network.  That's OK if that latter network is owned and operated by the cellular carrier (e.g. AT&T or VZ), but NOT OK otherwise.  In the most classic example, AT&T gives a free residential femtocell to rural users that typically have Comcast/Xfinity for an ISP.  All the iPhone and iPAD traffic that would otherwise go on AT&Ts 3G/4G network is offloaded to Comcast/Xfinity which doesn't get a penny extra to carry it.)

FEMTOCELL SURVEY SYNOPSIS:
For its 27-page Residential Femtocell Service Strategies survey, Infonetics asked purchase-decision makers at service providers in North America, Europe/The Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America about their plans for delivering femtocell services through 2013. Survey participants were asked about current and future femtocell service launches, adoption drivers and challenges, femtocell technologies, service features, add-on services, marketing, advertising, sales strategies, CPE features, form factors, expected service revenue, ARPU, and subscribers.

"Operators are still very much focused on using femtocells to deliver better voice coverage, but our 2012 residential femtocell survey identifies a shift toward a more strategic utilization of femtocells for enhancing the mobile broadband experience and as a means for delivering value-added services like virtual home phone numbers and media file sharing," explains Richard Webb (richard@infonetics.com), directing analyst for microwave, mobile offload, and mobile broadband devices at Infonetics.

Mr. Webb adds, "The business model for more sophisticated femtocell services remains a big question mark. For the market to evolve, vendors need to help operators on pricing and service models so they can drive volumes and enable new service revenue. If it adds up, there's a real opportunity to leverage the femtocell to put the mobile network at the heart of the home network-something that's traditionally been beyond the reach of the mobile operator."

To buy the survey, contact Infonetics: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

From a report released last month, Infonetics 2nd quarter (2Q12) Femtocell Equipment market share and forecast report

FEMTOCELL EQUIPMENT MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Global 2G and 3G femtocell revenue is up 12% in 2Q12 over 1Q12, and is up 43% from the year-ago second quarter
  • Every segment of the femtocell market—consumer, enterprise, and public access—grew by double digits in 2Q12, with consumer femtocells accounting for more than 1/2 of 2Q12 revenue
  • In 2Q12, Alcatel-Lucent holds on to the #1 spot it nabbed last quarter in the tight race for W-CDMA/HSPA femtocell revenue, with Cisco/ip.access a close 2nd
  • W-CDMA/HSPA 3G femtocell revenue is growing at an 84% 5-year compound annual growth rate (2011 to 2016) and is expected to make up 95% of the 3G femtocell market by 2016
  • Airvana continues to lead the higher-priced CDMA2000/EV-DO femtocell segment, with Samsung easily maintaining the #2 spot

 

Analyst Commentary:

“Double-digit revenue growth returned to the femtocell market in the 2nd quarter following a minor seasonal dip the previous quarter,” notes Richard Webb, directing analyst for microwave, mobile offload, and mobile broadband devices at Infonetics Research. “The combination of attractive product feature sets and price points, wider service availability, a growing customer base, and rising shipment volumes is proof positive that the femtocell market has long-term viability.”

Webb continues: "A slight dip in 3G femtocell revenue per unit held back overall revenue growth in the femtocell market in the first part of the year, but price erosion is an important factor that will drive long-term volume growth. Femtocell price erosion is due to a combination of factors, including new component suppliers entering the fray, manufacturing efficiencies, and the continuing scale-up of femtocell shipment volumes.  Yet we remain cautiously optimistic that femtocells have sufficient market drivers and support among operators to sustain year-over-year growth through 2016."

To purchase this or other Infonetics reports, contact Infonetics sales: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

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Addendum:  Informa Telecoms & Media Small Cells Market Update Report

Julian Bright of Informa Telecoms & Media, recently presented his firm's latest quarterly market update on small cells.  The most important finding was that the number of small cells now exceeded the number of macrocells worldwide. This is helped by Sprint's 1 million residential femtocell deployments– up from 250,000 in 2011. 

Their report also highlights how new femtocell deployments from Telefónica O2, Orange UK, and Bouygues Telecom over the  Summer mean that the UK and France have become the first countries globally  where all major operators have deployed the technology. Telefónica O2 has made significant public-access progress  with the world's densest femtocell deployment in east London for the Olympics,  as well as the launch of public Wi-Fi in central London which will be upgraded  imminently to support licensed small cells.   Informa predicts market growth to over 90 million small cells by 2016, based on linear growth, of which the vast majority (more than 90%) will be residential.

http://blogs.informatandm.com/6311/press-release-small-cells-outnumber-traditional-mobile-base-stations/

http://www.smallcellforum.org/resources-white-papers

 

Cisco Predicts Explosive Traffic Growth for Cloud Services, while Outages Continue Unabated & Cloud Cost is Higher than Thought!

The Cisco Global Cloud Index, forecasts that all data center traffic growth is expected to quadruple between 2011 and 2016, from 1.8 zettabytes in 2011 to 6.6 zettabytes in 2016.  Cloud traffic will be the fastest growing segment of this growth, burgeoning from 39 percent of data center traffic at 683 exabytes in 2011 to 64 percent of data center traffic at 4.3 exabytes in 2016.   In 2011, 30 percent of server workloads were processed in the cloud, and 70 percent were handled in traditional data centers. By 2016, 62 percent of server workloads will be processed in the cloud.

http://newsroom.cisco.com/release/1091855

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns1175/Cloud_Index_White_Paper.html

http://www.crn.com/news/cloud/240009703/cisco-survey-forecasts-cloud-traffic-explosion.htm?cid=nl_cloud&elqTrack=true

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But will cloud traffic growth continue in the face of well publicized service outages?  We first called attention to the lack of rapid cloud failure recovery in this piece:

http://viodi.com/2011/04/22/amazons-ec2-outage-proves-cloud-failure-recovery-is-a-myth/

More than 18 months later, cloud computing is still disturbingly vulnerable to outages that can close an online business to be out of service or down for several days, or cause it to lose precious data.  ThinkStrategies Jeff Kaplan wrote, "There are inevitably going to be disruptions to service availability, and it's key for service providers to minimize these occurrences and for cloud consumers to mitigate their risk by having a backup and recovery plan in place and by exploring ways to take advantage of offline service options."

1.  Microsoft Azure: On Feb. 28, a "leap-year bug" caused Microsoft Azure to suffer an extensive, worldwide cloud outage that wasn't fixed for more than 24 hours.

2.  Amazon Web Services:  On June 15, an Amazon Web Services power outage cut services to customers for about six hours, affecting its Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud, Amazon Relational Database Service and AWS Elastic Beanstalk, which are run from Amazon's data centers in Northern Virginia.  The Northern Virginia data centers, the company's oldest and most used, suffered a similar outage in 2011 and another in October, leading some to believe its infrastructure is wearing thin.

3.  Microsoft Windows Azure:  Azure customers in Western Europe were out of service for ~2.5 hours on July 26, when "a service interruption was triggered by a misconfigured network device that disrupted traffic to one cluster in our West Europe sub-region," Microsoft said.  The company said customers' storage accounts were not impacted during the Azure outage.

4.  Google Talk: Also on July 26, Google Talk chat service used by Google Gmail customers went down for almost five hours. Google apologized when the service was restored, saying in part: "Please rest assured that system reliability is a top priority at Google, and we are making continuous improvements to make our systems better."

5.  GoDaddy: On Sept. 11, web-hosting and email services company GoDaddy said a six-hour outage that disrupted its operations was caused by a networking issue and not by an attack from Anonymous, as the hacker group claimed.

6.  Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services went down in its Northern Virginia market Oct. 22, causing website outages in an unknown number of companies, including Reddit, Pinterest and Airnb.  The outages affected Elastic Beanstock services, followed by announcements of service interruptions with its Management Console for Elastic Beanstock Services, Relational Database Service, ElasticCache, Elastic Compute Cloud and CloudSearch. 

Several days later, Amazon wrote a very comprehensive report  that a memory leak and a failed monitoring system caused the AWS outage.  https://aws.amazon.com/message/680342/

One effected company wrote their website was taken out of service by the AWS outage

https://getsatisfaction.com/offerpop/topics/oct_22nd_site_outage_due_to_aws

7.  Google App Engine:  Google's platform for developing and hosting Web applications in Google-managed data centers, went down Oct. 26 for about four hours as it experienced slowness and errors. As a result, 50 percent of requests to the App Engine failed. The company said no application data was lost and application behavior was
restored.  Google then said it is bolstering its network service to guard against traffic latency.

8. Tumblr:  About the same time as the Google App Engine failure, the microblogging platform and social networking website Tumblr said service had been restored within a few hours and the company promised it would issue a full report.

9.  Dropbox:  The online storage company also experienced an outage on Oct. 26th.  It displayed a message that stated, "Error: Something went wrong. Don't worry, your files are still safe and the Dropboxers have been notified."

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The Cloud Connundrum

How can users continue to use cloud computing services, especially for mission critical applications, when failures are occuring with increased frequency and failure recovery takes hours or days? 

Read this for corroboration of this assertion:  Analyst: AWS Could Lose Customers If Outages Continue

http://www.crn.com/news/cloud/240010601/analyst-aws-could-lose-customers-if-outages-continue.htm

Will cloud computing really be cheaper than using premises data centers?  At least one company doesn't think so.  Martin Saunders, product director at Claranet said: "People understand that cloud isn't cheaper. It is always going to be cheaper for a company to buy a server, stick it in server room and run it themselves.  But I think if that's all you're focusing on then you're very much missing the point of what this thing is all about, because it's a service. It's not just about buying infrastructure and hardware."

Saunders said that people often compare the cost of running a server on premise to the cost of running a server in the cloud, and conclude that the cost of the on-premise server can be written off in three years, whereas the cloud
server will be an on-going expense.  Meaning OPEX will be higher for cloud then on prem data center!

http://www.cio.com/article/718107/Cloud_Will_Never_be_Cheaper_Than_On_Premise_Claranet

So will Cisco's forecast for explosive cloud data growth be realized?  I'm certainly not betting on that!