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The Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market: 2014 - 2020

Considering its thriving ecosystem, spectrum flexibility and performance metrics, public safety organizations worldwide recognize LTE as the de-facto standard for mission critical mobile broadband communications.

With spectrum already allocated, public safety agencies in the Middle East, Asia Pacific and the U.S have already begun to operate private LTE networks. Driven by public safety demands, LTE products can now also operate in spectrum bands previously unthinkable, such as the 400 MHz band, which is widely available to public safety agencies worldwide. Moreover, demands for tactical and rapidly deployable broadband solutions have also led vendors to develop private LTE base station products in a variety of innovative form factors such as Cell in a Box (CIAB) or airborne cells.

The research estimates the global spending on private LTE infrastructure including base stations (eNodeBs), mobile core (EPC) and backhaul will account for $2 Billion annually by the end of 2020. By the same time, the installed base of private public safety LTE base stations (http://www.reportsnreports.com/reports/276044-the-public-safety-lte-mobile-broadband-market-2014-2020.html) (eNode Bs) will reach nearly 155,000 globally, following a CAGR of nearly 60% between 2014 and 2020, and will serve nearly 4 Million private public safety LTE subscribers worldwide.

However it is important to note that the transition to LTE is one of the will be one of the most complex technical changes the public safety communications industry will ever witness and will present challenges in its own right, particularly in the context of global standardization. Furthermore spectrum, regulatory and budgetary issues in certain regions such as Europe will delay large scale private deployments.

Nonetheless, service prioritization partnerships with commercial LTE network carriers will create an ecosystem for operating public safety devices over commercial LTE networks during this transition period. We estimate that public safety LTE device shipments over commercial networks will account for nearly $7 Billion in annual revenue by the end of 2020.

This report presents an in-depth assessment of the global public safety LTE market, besides considering the wider LMR and mobile broadband industries. In addition to covering the business case, challenges, spectrum allocation strategies, industry roadmap, deployment case studies, vendor products, strategies, standardization activities and application ecosystem for public safety LTE, the report also presents comprehensive forecasts for mobile broadband,  LMR and public safety LTE subscriptions from 2011 till 2020. Also covered are public safety LTE service revenues as well as device and infrastructure (eNodeB base stations, EPC mobile core, backhaul) shipment and associated revenue forecasts.

The report comes with an associated XLS datasheet covering quantitative data from all figures presented within the report, as well as a list and associated details of 46 global private public safety LTE network deployments (as of Q1’2014).

Key Findings:

The report has the following key findings:

  • Global spending on private LTE infrastructure including base stations (eNodeBs), mobile core (EPC) and backhaul will account for $2 Billion annually by the end of 2020
  • By the same time, the installed base of private public safety LTE base stations (eNodeBs) will reach nearly 155,000, following a CAGR of nearly 60% between 2014 and 2020, and will serve nearly 4 Million private public safety LTE subscribers worldwide
  • As much as 15% of all public safety LTE investments will be military centric tactical deployments by 2020
  • Commercial carriers and public safety MVNOs will pocket nearly $7 Billion in public safety LTE service revenues by the end of 2020, following growth at a CAGR of 40% between 2014 and 2020
  • A large nationwide deployment such as FirstNet in the U.S. can save up to 40% in TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) over 10-years by opting for a public-private partnership rather than a private only investment
  • Almost all major LMR industry players are leveraging partnerships with established LTE infrastructure vendors such as Ericsson,  Alcatel-Lucent and NSN, to offer end-to-end LTE solutions

 

Topics Covered:

The report covers the following topics:

  • Business case for public safety LTE and mobile broadband services
  • Key benefits of public safety LTE and mobile broadband
  • Challenges to public safety LTE adoption
  • Public safety agency, network operator and vendor commitments to public safety LTE
  • List of private public safety LTE deployments worldwide
  • Public safety LTE deployment case studies
  • The industry roadmap for the public safety mobile broadband in general and the LTE market in particular
  • Public safety LTE deployment and funding models
  • Spectrum allocation for public safety LTE
  • Public safety LTE applications ecosystem
  • Public safety LTE vendor assessment and strategies
  • Profiles of over 100 players in the public safety LTE ecosystem
  • Public safety LTE standardization
  • Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis of private and commercial public safety LTE deployments
  • Military and tactical LTE deployments
  • Public safety LTE base station form factor analysis
  • Exclusive interview transcripts from 7 industry players including Airbus, Motorola Solutions and General Dynamics
  • Strategic recommendations for vendors, system integrators, public safety agencies and wireless carriers
  • Market analysis and forecasts from 2011 till 2020

 

Forecast Segmentation:

Market forecasts and historical figures are provided for each of the following submarkets:

Public Safety LTE Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base

Network Categories

  • Private LTE
  • Commercial LTE

 

Form Factor Categories

  • Macrocell
  • Small Cell
  • Relay Node
  • Tactical Cell on Wheel (COW)
  • Tactical Cell in a Box (CIAB)
  • Airborne Cell

 

Additional Forecasts for Pubic Safety LTE Infrastructure

  • Public Safety LTE Mobile Core (EPC) Investments
  • Public Safety LTE Backhaul Investments

 

Public Safety LTE Device Shipments & Revenue

Network Categories

  • Private LTE
  • Commercial LTE

 

Form Factor Categories

  • Handportable LMR Terminal
  • Mobile (In-Vehicle) LMR Terminal
  • Notebook PC
  • USB Dongle
  • Smartphone
  • PDA

 

Public Safety LTE Subscriptions & Service Revenue

  • Private LTE
  • Commercial LTE

 

Public Safety User Subscriptions over Private Mobile Broadband

  • Private LTE
  • Private WiMAX

 

Public Safety User Subscriptions over Commercial Mobile Broadband

  • LTE
  • WiMAX
  • W-CDMA
  • HSPA
  • CDMA2000
  • EV-DO

 

LMR Subscriptions

  • P25
  • TETRA
  • Tetrapol
  • dPMR
  • NXND
  • PDT
  • Analog Radio

 

LMR Data Subscriptions

  • TETRA
  • TETRA TEDS
  • P25 Phase 1
  • P25 Phase 2
  • Tetropol

The following regional  markets are also covered:

Regional Markets

  • Asia Pacific
  • Eastern Europe
  • Latin & Central America
  • Middle East & Africa
  • North America
  • Western Europe

 

Key Questions Answered:

The report provides answers to the following key questions:

  • Which countries will be the first to deploy and adopt LTE for public safety applications?
  • How many private public safety LTE base stations (eNodeBs) will ship in 2020, and how will these compare to the wider commercial LTE market?
  • How much will be invested on mobile core (EPC) and backhaul infrastructure to support private public safety LTE deployments?
  • How will the VoLTE ecosystem evolve and how will this impact PTT and voice services for public safety LTE?
  • When will standardized mission-critical voice communications and proximity services see large scale proliferation in the public safety LTE market?
  • How much revenue will the public safety LTE application ecosystem generate in 2020?
  • How will public safety LTE device shipments vary by form factor (handheld LMR terminals, mobile in-vehicle LMR modems, notebook PCs, USB dongles, smartphones, PDAs) overtime?
  • Is the 400 MHZ spectrum realistically feasible to support public safety LTE applications?
  • What are the prospects of tactical, rapidly deployable and airborne LTE solutions?
  • Does Huawei stand a chance in the public safety LTE market outside of Asia?
  • Which vendors and system integrators are the most successful in the public safety LTE market?
  • How many first responders rely on private and commercial mobile broadband networks for their daily tasks?
  • How will private and commercial public safety LTE subscriptions compare in 2020?
  • How will public safety LTE subscriptions compare to other mobile broadband technologies such as WiMAX and HSPA in 2020?
  • What opportunities exist for commercial wireless carriers and MVNOs in the public safety LTE market?

 

List of Companies

The following companies and organizations have been reviewed, discussed or mentioned in the report:

  • 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project)
  • 7 layers AG
  • Abu Dhabi Police
  • ACMA (Australian Communications and Media Authority)
  • Aculab
  • Adax
  • ADCOM911 (Adams County Communication Center)
  • Aeroflex
  • Airbus Defence and Space (Formerly Cassidian)
  • Airbus Group
  • Airspan Networks
  • Airwave
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • Amdocs
  • Anritsu
  • APCO (Association of Public-Safety Communications Officials-International)
  • Apple
  • ARASKOM
  • Aricent Group
  • Artevea
  • ASTRID
  • ASTRO Solutions
  • AT&T Mobility
  • ATIS (Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions)
  • Atlas Telecom
  • Aviat Networks
  • Avtec
  • Axell Wireless
  • Axis Communications
  • BAE Systems
  • BASE (Belgium)
  • BayWEB (Bay Area Wireless Enhanced Broadband system)
  • BFDX
  • BlackBerry
  • Bosch Security Systems
  • Brazilian Army
  • Bridgewater
  • Broadcom
  • C4i
  • CalAmp
  • Canadian Advanced Technology Alliance
  • Catalyst Communications
  • CCTI (Catalyst Communications Technologies Inc)
  • China Mobile
  • Cimarron Technologies
  • Cisco
  • CITIG (Canadian Interoperability Technology Interest Group)
  • City of Charlotte
  • City of Fort Worth
  • City of Irving
  • City of New Orleans
  • City of Pembroke Pine
  • Cobham
  • CommScope
  • Covia Labs
  • DAMM Cellular Systems A/S
  • Daniels Electronics Ltd
  • DAPage Notifications
  • DataNet Software
  • Dubai Police
  • Dutch Police
  • EADS
  • Eastcom
  • EENA (European Emergency Number Association)
  • EF Johnson
  • Ericsson
  • ETELM
  • Etherstack
  • ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute)
  • Eventide
  • EXACOM
  • Exalt Communications
  • Exelis
  • Facebook
  • FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency)
  • FCC (Federal Communications Commission)
  • FirstNet (First Responder Network Authority)
  • French Armed Forces
  • FREQUENTIS AG
  • General Dynamics
  • General Dynamics C4 Systems
  • German Armed Forces
  • Germany Army
  • Google
  • Harris
  • Harris County
  • HigherGround
  • Hitachi
  • Honeywell
  • Hong Kong Police Force
  • HQT Radio
  • HTC
  • Huawei
  • Hughes
  • Hytera
  • iCOM
  • ICOM America
  • Imtradex
  • Intel
  • InterDigital
  • InterSec
  • Intrado
  • IPWireless
  • ITT Corporation
  • ITU (International Telecommunications Union)
  • Japan Radio Company
  • JDI (JING DENG INDUSTRIAL)
  • Jordanian Armed Forces
  • JVC Kenwood
  • Kapsch CarrierCom
  • Kelrad Software
  • Kenwood
  • Kirisun
  • Kodiak Networks
  • KPN
  • L-3 Communications
  • LA-RICS (Los Angeles Regional Interoperable Communications System)
  • Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department
  • Lemko
  • Lenovo
  • LG Electronics
  • LG Uplus
  • LiveViewGPS
  • Lockheed Martin
  • Mentura Group
  • MetroPCS
  • Miami Dade Police Department
  • Miami-Dade County
  • Ministry of Communications, Libya
  • Ministry of Public Security (MPS), China
  • Mobistar
  • MODUCOM
  • Moscow Police
  • Motorola Mobility (Part of Lenovo)
  • Motorola Solutions
  • Mutualink
  • National Rail (UK)
  • NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)
  • NEC
  • Net4Mobility
  • NetMotion Wireless
  • Nevada Department of Transportation
  • New York Police Department
  • New Zealand Police
  • NextNav
  • NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology)
  • Nokia
  • Nokia Solutions & Networks (NSN)
  • Northrop Grumman
  • NPSTC (National Public Safety Telecommunications Council)
  • nTerop
  • NTIA (National Telecommunications and Information Administration)
  • NVA (Networked Vehicle Association)
  • NYCWiN  (New York City Wireless Network)
  • Oceus Networks
  • OMA (Open Mobile Alliance)
  • Oman Royal Office
  • Ontario Ministry of Transportation
  • ONTHEGODEVICES LLC
  • OpenSignal
  • Panasonic
  • Panorama Antennas
  • Phonak
  • Piciorgros (Funk-Electronic Piciorgros GmbH)
  • Pikewerks Corporation
  • Polaris
  • Police Federation of Australia
  • Portalify
  • POTEVIO International
  • PowerTrunk
  • Proximus
  • PSCR (Public Safety Communications Research)
  • Putian
  • Puxing Radio
  • Pyramid Communications
  • Qatar Armed Forces
  • Qatar MOI (Ministry of Interior)
  • Qualcomm
  • RACOM
  • Radio IP
  • Radisys
  • RAVEN Electronics Corporation
  • Raytheon
  • Reality Mobile
  • RELM Wireless
  • Réseau Ferré de France (RFF)
  • Rivada Networks
  • Rohde & Schwarz
  • Rohill
  • Royal Canadian Mounted Police
  • SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation)
  • Samsung
  • SANG (Saudi Arabian National Guard)
  • Sao Paulo Military Police
  • Sapura Secured Technologies
  • SaskTel
  • Saudi MOI (Ministry of Interior)
  • Savox Communications
  • Selex ES
  • Sepura
  • SETAR
  • Shanghai Police
  • Siemens
  • Signalion
  • Simoco
  • SiRRAN
  • SK Telecom
  • SmithMicro
  • Sonic Communications
  • Sony
  • Space Data
  • Star Solutions
  • State of Louisiana
  • State of Mississippi
  • State of New Jersey
  • State of New Mexico
  • State of Oklahoma
  • Stop Noise
  • SyTech Corporation
  • Tait
  • TCCA (TETRA and Critical Communications Association)
  • TCS (TeleCommunication Systems)
  • TD Industry Alliance(TDIA)
  • Techosonic Industries
  • Tecore Networks
  • Telenet
  • Televate, LLC
  • TELEX
  • Teltronic
  • Telum
  • TETRAtab
  • Texas Instruments
  • Thales
  • The Genesis Group
  • TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association)
  • TITAN Communication Systems
  • T-Mobile
  • Toshiba
  • Trident Microsystems
  • Turkish National Police Force
  • Twisted Pair Solutions
  • U.K. Home Office
  • U.S. Army
  • U.S. Cellular
  • U.S. Coast Guard
  • U.S. Department of Commerce
  • U.S. Department of Defense
  • U.S. Department of Homeland Security
  • U.S. Navy
  • U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM)
  • UIC (International Union of Railways)
  • UNIMO Technology
  • University of Ottawa
  • USPTO (U.S. Patent and Trademark Office)
  • Utility
  • Verizon Wireless
  • Vidyo
  • Vodafone
  • Voice Print International
  • West Australian Police
  • Zetron
  • Zhengzhou Metro
  • ZTE

Infonetics: OTN switching is booming; Windsteam's 100G Express Network

In a just released report, Infonetics Research summarizes the 2013 optical network hardware (OTN and SONET/SDH) and Packet Optical Transport System (P-OTS) markets, provides their 2014 outlook, as well as which vendors are benefiting the most.

OTN AND P-OTS MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
.    Worldwide overall OTN revenue totaled $8 billion in 2013, or 66% of all optical network hardware spending
.    The OTN switching segment of the market grew 37% in 2013
.    The market for P-OTS equipment came to $1.7 billion in 2013, split fairly evenly between metro edge and metro regional P-OTS gear
.    P-OTS revenue grew 32% between the second half of 2012 and the second half of 2013
.    Infonetics projects the OTN switching segment to grow at about a 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2013 to 2018

Infonetics previously reported that service providers are choosing OTN switching as the technology best suited to filling 100G pipes, because it enables efficient aggregation of diverse services and protocols over a single link. 

ANALYST NOTE:

 "OTN switching had a major year of growth in 2013 as service providers prioritized installation of integrated WDM+OTN switching and 100G coherent technology in the core. Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, and Infinera are the key beneficiaries here," notes Andrew Schmitt, principal analyst for optical at Infonetics Research. "Meanwhile, Chinese carriers continue to expand large deployments of OTN switching, with Huawei as the sole beneficiary."

Schmitt adds: "Over in the P-OTS space, incumbent vendors Cisco, Fujitsu, Tellabs, Ciena, and Alcatel-Lucent are the market leaders, but new players BTI, Cyan, Transmode, and Ericsson are challenging with pure-play P-OTS platforms."

On Feb 18, 2013, Schmitt wrote: “Optical spending flattened in the fourth quarter of 2013, though it wasn’t distributed evenly around the world or by vendor. Weakness was concentrated in North America, but a year-end capex surge in EMEA evened things up.  All indications are that an all-clear from Verizon and AT&T is forthcoming and the Q4 drop was a pause rather than a reversal — and this is in line with our forecasts.” 

 


REPORT SYNOPSIS:

 Infonetics' biannual OTN and packet optical report provides worldwide and regional market size, vendor market share, forecasts through 2018, analysis, and trends for OTN transport and switching hardware, including metro edge and metro regional port revenue forecasts by type and speed. Companies tracked: Adtran, Adva, Alcatel Lucent, BTI, Ciena, Cisco, Cyan, ECI, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, Infinera, NEC, NSN, Tellabs, Transmode, ZTE, and others.

To buy the report, contact Infonetics:

http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

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Andrew Schmitt, Principal Optical Analyst at Infonetics is speaking at four OFC/NFOEC sessions this week in San Francisco:

 

Low Cost 100G Interfaces for Metro Access: Standardized or Proprietary?

Mar. 10, 9:00 am

Market Watch: Panel 1: State of the Industry

Mar. 11, 12:00 pm

Flexible Rate OTU for Beyond 100G

Mar. 12, 8:00 am

The Buzz - A Real-time Look at the News and Trends Happening at OFC

Mar. 12, 3:30 pm

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In related optical transport news, Windstream today announced it's deploying the Infinera DTN-X platform, featuring 500 Gigabit per second (Gb/s) super-channels across Windstream's long-haul express network. The Infinera Intelligent Transport Network enables Windstream to differentiate their services, protect their investment and lower operational expense as they scale their network. 
Windstream operates a nationwide fiber and IP network, covering 118,000 miles of fiber and 27 data center locations across the nation. As a cloud solutions provider, Windstream serves businesses with a wide range of cloud communication needs, in addition to offering an advanced data, voice and video network that provides customers low latency and reliable 100 Gigabit Ethernet services.  

"By deploying the Infinera Intelligent Transport Network, Windstream will significantly increase the capacity of our network infrastructure to meet the needs of our customers," said Randy Nicklas, executive vice president of engineering and chief technology officer for Windstream. "The DTN-X platform enables us to offer services that result in lower latency for mission critical applications while providing a network that is even more reliable and enables rapid provisioning of services."

Read more at:

http://www.infinera.com/pdfs/news/2014/pr20140310-Windstream_Deploys_Inf...

The Internet of Things (IoT) explained along with ARM's role in making it happen!

The Internet of Things (IoT) is about embedding communications technology in all objects that can benefit from it, from cars to buildings, everyday objects and even materials.  It's an ongoing revolution that has much potential and promise to revolutionize the electronics industry.  Advances in making smaller microelectronics devices, sensors and low-power radio communications, are making the IoT a commercial reality.  Google's $3.2B acquisition of smart thermostat makerNest is a great example of that dynamic as per this article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2014/01/13/google-acquires-nest-for-3-2-billion/


On February 20th, Zach Shelby -Director of IoT technology at ARM Ltd, presented an interesting talk on the IoT at a Santa Clara University (SCU) EE Dept Colloquium. Zach was co-founder and head of research at Sensinode in Finland before that company was acquired last fall by ARM Ltd.  As a result of that acquisition, Zach now works at ARM's San Jose, CA office as an IoT evangelist and technology director.   Here are the highlights of his SCU talk:

  • IoT combines embedded electronic devices with the Internet mostly using low power wireless interfaces.
  • Machine to Machine (M2M) applications when combined with the Internet (either directly or indirectly connected devices) comprise the IoTs.
  • M2M apps include:  asset management, facility management, security monitoring, energy management, weather stations, etc
  • IoT produces Little Data (in contrast to Big Data/analytics) via small streams of data.
  • IoT breaks down silos or walled gardens of closed systems
  • Gartner Group predicts that by 2018, 50% of IoT solutions will be from start-ups <3 years old.  
  • IoT is a disruptive technology as it changes the way "things" (devices) are made.
  • Some key markets for IoT include-Smart Home, Smart Cities, Fitness/exercise equipment, and Asset Management
  • ARM Ltd is working on a lot of software to make the IoT a commercial reality. For example, a Development Platform for Devices is available at:https://mbed.org/
  • ARM has developed wireless communications I/O drivers for LTE and WiFi endpoints that are not VLSI component specific.The company supports Java ME as well as JAVA script on its software development platformLocal Processing, Security, communications, discovery and end to end device management are included in ARM's IoT architecture.

 

Reference:
http://www.ee.scu.edu/classes/2014winter/elen200/shelby.pdf

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Samsung creates medical test bed to prove Internet of Things is worth the effort

The partnership between Samsung and the University of California, San Francisco sets out with a single goal: to develop a test bed for medical sensors in efforts to validate the worth of emerging Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technologies, otherwise known as the Internet of Things. 

The South Korean giant's joint project with medical professionals will work to develop network-connected sensors for gadgets, signalling a divergence in the company's strategy by focusing on health and the wider medical world.

http://www.zdnet.com/samsung-creates-medical-test-bed-to-prove-internet-...

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Cisco CEO: 2014 will be a big year for the Internet of Things -will be worth $19Trillion over next 10 years!

Cisco Systems CEO John Chambers says the Internet of Things could represent $19 trillion of economic value over the next 10 years, and will affect society more than the Internet itself. Chambers says this year could be a turning point as more devices become connected, and that he expects there to be 50 billion Internet-connected devices by 2020.

Speaking at the Mobile World Congress trade show, Chambers said that the Internet of things will potentially have five to ten times the impact on society over the Internet itself.

As an illustration of the growth of connected devices, Chambers noted that there were only 1,000 devices connected to the Internet when Cisco was created in 1984. There were more than 10 billion connected devices in 2010, and they outnumber the actual number of people now. By 2020, Chambers said he expects to see 50 billion devices connected to the Internet. 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57619548-94/how-much-is-the-internet-of-everything-worth-cisco-says-$19-trillion/

 


 

 

Optical Network Equipment Spending flat in 4Q13 as North America sags and EMEA surges!

Infonetics Research released vendor market share and preliminary analysis from its 4th quarter 2013 (4Q13) and year end Optical Network Hardware report. (Full report to be published by February 24.)

OPTICAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
.    Worldwide optical network hardware revenue, including WDM and SONET/SDH, was essentially flat in 4Q13, totaling $3.1 billion
.    For the full year 2013, the overall optical network hardware market is down 3%
.    On a positive note, the WDM segment posted a 6th consecutive quarter of growth in 4Q13 and ended the full year 2013 up 11% as 100G deployments hit the ground
.    Though the traditional 4Q capex flush was in full effect in EMEA, the region recorded a 5th straight year of spending declines; Infonetics expects EMEA to revert back to being a third of global spending within 1-2 years
.    The Chinese optical market closed 2013 up only 6%, but performance is anticipated to improve in 2014 as 100G rollouts pick up steam
.    EMEA optical heavyweights Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Coriant, and Huawei all had a big 4Q13

ANALYST NOTE
"Optical spending flattened in the fourth quarter of 2013, though it wasn't distributed evenly around the world or by vendor. Weakness was concentrated in North America, but a year-end capex surge in EMEA evened things up," notes Andrew Schmitt, principal analyst for optical at Infonetics Research.

Schmitt adds: "All indications are that an all-clear from Verizon and AT&T is forthcoming and the Q4 drop was a pause rather than a reversal - and this is in line with our forecasts." 

ABOUT THE OPTICAL REPORT:
Infonetics' quarterly optical hardware report provides worldwide and regional market size, market share, forecasts through 2018, analysis, and trends for metro and long haul SONET/SDH and WDM equipment, Ethernet optical ports, SONET/SDH/POS ports, and WDM ports. Vendors tracked: Adva, Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Cisco, Cyan, ECI, Fujitsu, Huawei, Infinera, NEC, Coriant, Tellabs, Transmode, Tyco Telecom, ZTE, and others. To buy the report, contact Infonetics: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp.

RELATED REPORT EXCERPTS:
.    Operators answer the big questions about metro 100G and ROADM deployments
.    Pricing pressures drive down ROADM component market in first half of 2013
.    Carriers dialing back spending on optical equipment; WDM segment outpaces the market

 

Note the steep decline in N America & Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) Optical Network Equipment Spending in the chart below:

                                  

RECENT AND UPCOMING OPTICAL RESEARCH:
Download Infonetics' 2014 market research brochure, publication calendar, events brochure, report highlights, tables of contents, and more at http://www.infonetics.com/login

References:

http://community.comsoc.org/blogs/alanweissberger/fbrs-scott-thompson-ex...

http://www.cablinginstall.com/articles/2014/02/cir-400g-report.html

http://www.lightwaveonline.com/articles/2014/02/400g-optical-transport-m...

http://www.fiercetelecom.com/story/network-infrastructure-2014-market-ou...

http://www.sdncentral.com/news/ericsson-drops-optical-partners-ciena/201...

 

100G WEBINAR:

Join analyst Andrew Schmitt and JDSU, MRV, and Transmode on Wednesday, February 19, for 100G in the Metro: When and Where It Will Be Economical, a live event covering new approaches and technologies for cost-effectively deploying 100G in the metro. Register today: 

http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=737721&s=1&k=4C4FEAE8EA6BE2BE5618AD600E607F5D

 

Addendum:

Frontier offers wavelength service in 25 states:
Frontier Communications' Frontier Optical Transport Service, a 10-gigabit wavelength service, was rolled out Monday in 25 states. The company will install optical fiber to buildings of customers that order the service. "If we don't lay the fiber, someone else will," Frontier's Lisa Partridge said. "We believe it's necessary because of how quickly bandwidth is doubling and tripling." Telecompetitor.com 

Chicago Plans affordable gigabit Internet access in selected zones

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has put out requests for vendor qualifications as Chicago prepares to bring gigabit-class Internet service to certain neighborhoods. Chicago has designated seven "Innovation Zones" for the faster service which will not based on Google Fiber. 

The biggest and busiest city in the Midwest, Chicago is home to almost 3 million people. Comcast provides high-speed cable Internet access, while AT&T is the major DSL provider.

Before powering up the seven ultra high speed Internet zones, the city says it must take several months reviewing qualifications
 and proposals from potential vendors.  The goal, Yager says, is to promote businesses and universities across Chicago.
"This is really a huge economic development initiative," she said. She believes providing access to gigabit-speed Internet — which is 100 times faster than basic broadband — will encourage business creation, growth, expansion and relocation.

http://bluesky.chicagotribune.com/originals/chi-rahm-emanuel-gigabit-speed-internet-bsi-20140207,0,0.story

 

FBR: Telcos & Service Providers Moving from "feeds and speeds" to "higher-margin managed services"/Home grown CDNs?

In a report today on Level 3 Communications (LVLT), FBR analyst David Dixon makes the case that enterprise customers of private line, VPN, voice trunking and other transport services are moving to the cloud for those and more.  Dixon wrote:

"We see (service provider) companies offering bundled cloud, transport, and access services (where access services are heavily discounted to secure higher-value cloud services) and believe the company cost structure may shift more than expected due to the change in the nature of content relationships over time, perhaps driving a review of peering interconnections with end-user networks and potential migration of customers to single integrated wireline/wireless providers."

Continuing, "Level 3's  guidance depends on a number of "X factors" over the near future, including sustaining positive enterprise growth and more aggressive dark fiber sales. We are seeing more appetite from wireless network providers for dark fiber (to locations already served with leased lit fiber) as their architecture shifts get underway. The risk is that these companies may confine LVLT to providing lower-margin transport services. In the CDN (Content Delivery Network) segment, we like the current momentum but see this business pressured over time by the irreversible mix shift of Internet traffic toward "two-way" content increasingly distributed on cloud-based architectures that provide compute AND storage."

In his analysis of Akamai's earnings report, Dixon wrote: "Fundamentally, we are concerned about the increased pressure on Akamai's CDN-based business model over time" for exactly the same reason- customer migration to cloud compute and storage services.  Akamai is the company behind FaceBook, Apple, and other massive global web properties. The company claims to deliver 30% of all Web traffic. Akamai is rated as a top notch CDN, with 96 out of the 100 top online retailers in the U.S. relying on Akamai's CDN.  http://www.akamai.com/

.................................................

  

Earlier this week, the WSJ reported:  Apple Quietly Builds New Networks

Apple was said to be "stitching together a network of Internet infrastructure capable of delivering large amounts of content to customers, giving the company more control over the distribution of its online offerings while laying the groundwork for more traffic if it decides to move deeper into television."  

That might adversely effect Akamai's future revenues. "DeepField says Apple distributes most of its Internet content through Akamai's network of servers. Akamai executives recently said they are renegotiating a multiyear contract with their top customer, a process that typically results in lower fees for the company."

Akamai's CEO Tom Leighton hinted at the news that Apple may be thinking of going it alone for a CDN with this comment to industry analysts: “Any very large media customer at one time or another is looking at a do-it-yourself solution. It’s a lot harder than people think, though. What may have seemed like a good idea at the time, over a period of years, often doesn’t."

                                                    


Report from Open Compute Summit & Implications for the Networking Sector - Scott Thompson, FBR Capital Markets

Article written by Scott Thompson of FBR Capital Markets.

References provided by Alan J Weissberger of IEEE ComSoc

OCS Report:

On January 28 and 29, the Open Compute Summit held its annual gathering where hyperscale and large enterprises show cased the creative and cutting-edge work they have pioneered over the past year in a quest to drive costs and complications from the IT landscape. We attended the conference and present some of the more important points below.

    * One of the messages with the most impact at Open Compute this year was delivered by Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. He suggested that one of the top strategic priorities at Facebook is to find a way to deliver Internet service to a larger portion of the world's population.  Mr. Zuckerberg stressed that emerging markets (two-thirds of the planet's population) often do not have the same access to the Internet as does the developed world. Facebook believes that finding a way to provide affordable access to the Internet for those markets represents one of Facebook's largest growth opportunities. He added that the costs Facebook presently incurs to deploy networks that run its services would need to decline to one-tenth of current rates to make this goal financially achievable. He also added that Facebook has a plan to deliver those types of network efficiencies over the next five years and that the Open Compute Project is an essential cornerstone of that effort.

    * We found a chorus of network pioneers at the event that agreed with Mr. Zuckerberg's assessment. The networking and compute process, when combined in ways that webscale operations have been perfecting for several years, is likely to deliver significant savings, compared to traditional methods and architectures.

Intel is introducing reference designs for "rack-scale architecture" that, by 2015-2016, should dramatically change the way the world processes data and manages compute resources and networks both together.

During a panel hosted by Facebook's Director of Infrastructure Najam Ahmad, a large number of panelists appeared to confirm that there is a clear and new reference design for how the IT community is beginning to measure efficient datacenter infrastructure.

Martin Casado, PhD & CTO of networking at VMWare, and J.R. Rivers of Cumulus Networks both seemed to agree that the new distributed datacenter model used by many hyperscale networks has achieved new levels of efficiency. Mr. Casado suggested these reference designs, across both enterprise and service verticals, are quickly becoming the de facto standard by which new and more efficient networking technologies can be deployed. He suggested that we may be nearly past the technical barriers required for achieving hypserscale efficiencies and that the primary constraint keeping enterprises and service providers from adopting similar technologies is now cultural. Casado believes that educating those who design and deploy IT systems is now the most effective way to bring about wholesale change across the networking landscape.

    * The Open Compute Project (OCP) appears focused on this challenge in 2014. While the pure pace of innovative technology on display at this year's Open Compute Summit appeared to have slowed, relative to the last one, the mechanisms and framework needed to effect and propagate change appear to be improving dramatically.

The OCP appears to be rapidly gaining the support of the vendor community, bringing it closer to an ecosystem for the acquisition of bespoke networking and compute equipment. From a logical  perspective, we continue to have reservations that an "open community" will have the scale and purchasing power to effect change across vendors that might prefer other solutions, but we remain impressed by the scale, scope, and momentum that the OCP has created over the past few years. Whether it proves to be long term or not, Open Compute and its member organizations are changing the face of the IT landscape.

.....................................................................................................

References:

1. SDN Central's OCP Summit Report:

http://tinyurl.com/m9442bo

 

 

 

2. OCP-Network Group Charter & more

http://files.opencompute.org/oc/public.php?service=files&t=437680b2416f9...

3.  Broadcom's Leaf & Spine Network Switch Spec

http://www.opencompute.org/assets/Uploads/Open-Compute-Project-BRCM-Open...

4.  Intel's 10/40 Gigabit Ethernet Rack Mountable Switch Standard, by Michael Miller

Contact: mike.miller@intel.com  for a soft copy (pdf)

 

AT&Ts earnings report: Smartphone adds and low churn for wireless; Project VIP exceeds build out targets;U-Verse adds too

AT&T’s wireless revenues for the fourth quarter rose 4.8% year over year due mainly to a 16.8% increase in wireless data revenue.  Wireless revenue hit $18.4 billion for the quarter and $5.7 billion of that came from data revenue. AT&T noted that data usage per smartphone increased 50 percent annually on its network.  

1.2 million smartphones were added to AT&T's wireless network during the fourth quarter from both new subscribers and from upgrades by existing  subscribers. There were 5 million total smart phone additions in 2013.  Smartphone adds are important because those subscriptions generate more average revenue per user than traditional  cell phones.

While the revenue from mobile data rose, AT&T’s net postpaid adds, totaling 566,000 for the quarter, fell short of rivals Verizon (1.6 million) and T-Mobile (870,000).  AT&T said there were tablet 440,000 net adds for the quarter.

AT&T reported a record-low Q4 postpaid churn of 1.11%- significantly lower than the 1.7% churn that T-Mobile says it experienced in the latest quarter.

AT&T added 194,000 TV subscribers in the fourth quarter, bringing the telecom's total to 5.5 million. The carrier also added 630,000 U-verse broadband customers for a total of 10.4 million. "Plus we had our lowest TV churn ever in the fourth quarter," Chief Financial Officer John Stephens told analysts Tuesday. Overall, AT&T earned 53 cents a share, higher than analysts had predicted, although the carrier warned of slowing growth in the current quarter. On the wireless side, AT&T added 809,000 subscribers, and profit margins exceeded analysts' estimates on a 4.8% rise in revenue.

PCWorld/IDG News Service (1/28), Multichannel News (1/28), GigaOm (1/28), Bloomberg Businessweek (1/29)

...........................................................................................................................................

AT&T’s press release:

AT&T Reports 20 Percent Adjusted EPS Growth, Record-Low Fourth-Quarter Postpaid Churn, Solid Smartphone Gains and Continued Strong U-verse Momentum in Fourth-Quarter Results

Full-Year 2013: Adjusted Revenue Gains of Nearly 2 Percent, Upper-Single Digit Adjusted EPS Growth and Nearly $23 Billion Returned to Shareowners

  • $1.31 diluted EPS in the fourth quarter compared to $(0.68) diluted EPS in the year-ago period. Excluding significant items, EPS was $0.53 versus $0.44, up 20.5 percent year over year
  • For full-year 2013, excluding significant items and Advertising Solutions, EPS was up 8.2 percent
  • Fourth-quarter consolidated revenues of $33.2 billion, up 1.8 percent versus the year-earlier period
  • More than 2 million new wireless and wireline high speed broadband connections added in the fourth quarter
  • Full-year capital investment of $21 billion while exceeding Project VIP objectives
  • $1.9 billion in share buybacks with 54 million shares repurchased in the fourth quarter; for the full year, the company repurchased 366 million shares, or more than 6 percent of shares outstanding, for $13.0 billion
  • Nearly $23 billion returned to shareowners in 2013 through dividends and share repurchases

Nation’s Most Reliable 4G LTE Network Drives Revenue Growth, Smartphone Gains and Lowest-Ever Fourth-Quarter Postpaid Churn

  • Wireless service revenues up 4.8 percent versus the year-ago quarter, total revenues up 4.5 percent
  • Wireless data revenues up 16.8 percent versus the year-earlier period
  • Total postpaid ARPU up 2.1 percent; phone-only ARPU up 3.9 percent
  • Wireless operating income up $1.4 billion, or 54 percent; wireless EBITDA up $1.5 billion, or 35 percent; wireless operating income margin of 21.4 percent; EBITDA service margin of 37.4 percent
  • Lowest-ever fourth-quarter postpaid churn at 1.11 percent
  • More than one-half million branded smartphone net adds, both postpaid and prepaid
  • 1.2 million new postpaid smartphones added (both upgrades and new subscribers); smartphones account for a record 93 percent of postpaid phone sales
  • More than 1 million AT&T Next sales, 15 percent of all postpaid smartphone gross adds and upgrades
  • 566,000 wireless postpaid net adds
  • 440,000 branded tablet net adds

U-verse® Drives Wireline Consumer Growth and Broadband Gains

  • Wireline consumer revenue growth of 2.9 percent versus the year-earlier period
  • Total U-verse revenues, including business, up 27.9 percent year over year, now a $13 billion annualized revenue stream
  • 10.7 million total U-verse subscribers (TV and high speed Internet) in service:
    • 630,000 high speed Internet subscriber net adds; record annual net adds of 2.7 million
    • 194,000 U-verse TV subscribers added, lowest churn in product history
  • Continued U-verse broadband gains in the business customer segment, up 78,000, nearly doubling year-ago net adds
  • Strategic business services growth accelerates with revenues up 17.4 percent year over year, now more than 25 percent of wireline business revenues

Note: AT&T’s fourth-quarter earnings conference call will be broadcast live via the Internet at 4:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2014, at www.att.com/investor.relations.

DALLAS–(BUSINESS WIRE)–

AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) today reported solid fourth-quarter results with strong revenue and EPS growth driven by continued gains in the company’s key growth drivers — mobile and IP data, U-verse and strategic business services.

“2013 was the year of the network,” said Randall Stephenson, AT&T chairman and CEO. “With Project VIP, we’re delivering faster speeds and new services to millions more customers. And growth on these platforms is going strong. We exceeded build targets across the board. Our 4G LTE network is nearly complete and is the nation’s most reliable with lightning-fast speeds. U-verse is rapidly expanding, and our fiber-to-the-business build is off to a fast start.

“The next steps are to make our networks even more powerful and layer on services that will drive new growth in the years ahead. We have good momentum in areas like connected car, home automation and mobile business solutions. We’re also committed to transforming our operations to make them more responsive and efficient. To that end, we’ve launched Project Agile, a broad set of initiatives to streamline and improve every part of our business. Execution has begun and will be a focus area for us in 2014 and beyond.”

 

Infonetics: Little Change in Top Router/Switch Vendors Ranked by Carriers

Infonetics Research released excerpts from its recently published Router and Switch Vendor Leadership: Global Service Provider Survey, which explores service providers' perceptions of edge router and carrier Ethernet switch (CES) manufacturers and their criteria for choosing vendors. 


ROUTER/SWITCH VENDOR LEADERSHIP SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS

 •Cisco, the long-term edge router/CES revenue market share leader, is also seen as the #1 edge router/CES manufacturer by operator respondents

•Carriers are looking for the best investment: Survey respondents ranked price-to-performance ratio the #1 criterion when selecting an edge router/CES vendor, followed by product reliability

•Surprisingly, financial stability was rated the least important selection criterion on average•When it comes to service provider familiarity with edge router/CES manufacturers, Tellabs and Brocade scored relatively high given their market share

“The top four vendors in global edge router and carrier Ethernet switch market share—Cisco, Juniper, Alcatel-Lucent, and Huawei—are likewise viewed as the leading manufacturers of edge routers and CES by service providers participating in Infonetics’ just-published router/switch survey,” notes Michael Howard, Infonetics Research’s co-founder and principal analyst for carrier networks. “There’s a big gap between these four and their competitors, and it just gets harder for any manufacturer who’s not already on top of the heap.” 

Author's Note: The above quote implies that Juniper has regained the #2 spot from Alcatel-Lucent.  The Infonetics November 26, 2013 Router/Switch report ranked the top four vendors as follows:  "Cisco maintains its lead with 38%, Alcatel-Lucent regains 2nd place, Juniper holds #3, while Huawei drops to #4 on the 3Q13 global router/CES revenue share leaderboard."

 

                                                    

ABOUT THE SURVEY 

For its latest router/switch vendor leadership survey, Infonetics interviewed network equipment purchase-decision makers at 20 incumbent, independent wireless, competitive, and cable operators from EMEA, Asia Pacific, and North America. Together, the operators represent 36% of global telecom capex. The survey covers service providers’ familiarity with router and carrier Ethernet switch (CES) manufacturers, vendors installed and under evaluation, selection criteria, and their rankings of vendors’ technology innovation, product reliability, management software, security, pricing, price-to-performance ratio, service and support, product roadmap, and financial stability.

To buy the survey, contact Infonetics:

http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

DEFINITIONS:
Carrier Ethernet switches (CE switches or CES) are designed for use in service provider networks, primarily for access/aggregation; may have routing functions.

Service provider routers route IP (supporting RIP, BGP, ISIS, and OSPF), support IETF MPLS and PWE3 (Pseudowire Emulation Edge to Edge) services.

For the router/CES data network, we use the terms: access (to buildings, consumers, DSLAMs, cellsites), which feeds up into the aggregation, which connects to the metro core data network.

We use 10GE/40GE/100GE to refer to Ethernet interfaces at speeds of 10G, 40G, and 100G.

NFV (network functions virtualization) is the use of network functions software running on COTS standard servers rather than on special built network products for on-net services, such as CDN, IMS,EPC, DPI, firewall, IDS, spam filter, and turbo charge downloads.

Packet-optical platforms are packet-optical transport systems (P-OTS) that have an architecture that provides all of the following:

 Optical transport features including WDM and ROADM

 Optical circuit switching (SONET/SDH crossconnect and/or OTN) across the chassis Support for both optical and layer 2 restoration

 Ethernet switching, including support for connection oriented Ethernet (COE) protocols (e.g.,MPLS-TP, PBB-TE, T-MPLS, switched VLANs) and carrier grade per-flow traffic management

Multi-layer data/transport control plane: combines the control planes of Layer3/Layer2routing/switching equipment with layer 0 (?) and layer 1 transport equipment.

Related: Michael Howard's Dec 27, 2013 quotes:

“Service providers and vendors have been talking about how to use more optical transport withessential packet functionality to serve as the transport vehicle for packet traffic as an alternativeto routers. Our latest routing strategies study confirms that major changes are underway incarrier networks, with 75% of the operators we talked to using P-OTS (packet-optical transport systems) now or planning to by 2016.”

Howard adds: “Carriers are very interested in 100GE as well. We asked at what price they would buy 100GE for different applications — data center connections, aggregation, core, etc. — and by when. Some operators are already paying 15 times the price of 10GE for 100GE because theyneed it now, and we found that some operators are willing to pay more for 100GE for specificparts of their networks; for example, over a third are willing to pay a premium for routes with lowfiber availability. Still, most carriers will wait until 100GE pricing comes down to 10 times 10GE orlower, so it behooves manufacturers to continue developments that lower the price of 100GE.”

 

 

https://www.infonetics.com/cgp/lp.asp?id=711

 

Chairman Tom Wheeler Describes FCC's Top Priorities during CHM Speech; All-IP Network Transition at Jan 30th FCC Meeting

Introduction:
During his January 8th speech at the Computer History Museum (CHM),  FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler told the CHM audience that the U.S. was in a transition to a "4th Network Revolution" that would be led by a transition to an "all-IP" network.   The 4th Network is actually a multi-faceted revolution based on  IP based packet communications (for voice, data and video) replacing digital circuit switching and analog transmission. Communications protocols are moving from circuit-switched Time-division Multiplexing (or TDM) to IP.  3G and 4G wireless voice and data services are increasingly prevalent, empowering consumers to connect at the place and time of their choosing.

The FCC is the public’s representative in the ongoing network revolution and plans to pursue three main areas in this regard:

1. Promote and incent competition

2. Network Compact with the public, which has four key elements –universal accessibility, reliable interconnection, consumer protection, and public safety and security. 

3. Regulatory philosophy based on risk and economic growth.

.........................................................................................................................................

Wheeler said there were three steps the FCC can take to remove obstacles and to supply inputs, tangible and intangible, to enable innovators to spur growth.  These will be the FCC's top policy initiatives in the coming months and years.

1.  Spectrum policy that eliminates risks stemming from the government-mandated misallocation of spectrum.  A key area here is the reworking (or repurposing) of analog/broadcast TV spectrum concepts to the new digital realities.

2.  Speeding the transition to all-IP networks by preserving the Network Compact.  That transition is important because it demonstrates that the Commission will adapt its regulatory approach to the networks and markets of the 21st century.  Communications protocols are moving from circuit-switched Time-division Multiplexing (or TDM) to IP.  3G and 4G wireless voice and data services are increasingly prevalent, empowering consumers to connect at the place and time of their choosing.

3.  Through the protection of the "Open Internet" that is, today, our largest, global channel of commerce.  Unfortunately, the Open Internet and Net Neutrality are now in jeopardy, based on a federal district court ruling.  Read the scoop, comment and analysis at: http://viodi.com/2014/01/17/net-neutrality-ruling-the-beginning-of-the-end-or-the-end-of-the-beginning/

 
Transitioning to an "all-IP" Network:

Wheeler told the CHM audience: "The best way to speed technology transitions is to incent network innovation while preserving the enduring values that consumers and businesses have come to expect. Those values are all familiar: public safety, interconnection, competition, consumer protection and, of course, universal access. They are familiar, and they are fundamental."

Continuing, he said: "At the January 30th Commission meeting, we will invite proposals for a series of experiments utilizing all-IP networks. We hope and expect that many proposed experiments, wired and wireless, will be forthcoming. Those experiments will allow the networks, their users, the FCC and the public to assess the impact and potential of all-IP networks on consumers, customers and businesses in all parts of our country, including rural America."
All-IP Network Topic at the FCC's January 30th Open Commission Meeting:


The FCC Chairman then said that "no one would use a network without being able to make a 911 phone call (to report emergencies and seek help from law enforcement)."  That implies that the all-IP (VoIP) network must support 911 calls in a consistent manner.  It doesn't now.

It appears the all-IP network transition will be the number one agenda item at the FCC's January 30th Open Commission Meeting.  The agenda and live streaming info is at: http://www.fcc.gov/events/open-commission-meeting-january-2014


Advancing Technology Transitions While Protecting Network Values is the first agenda item.  It's all about the transition to an all-IP network.  "The Commission will consider a Report and Order, Notice of Proposed Rule making, and Notice of Inquiry that invites diverse technology transitions experiments to examine how to best accelerate technology transitions by preserving and enhancing the values consumers have come to expect from communication networks."

In a November 19, 2013 blog post,  Wheeler provided an overview of the all-IP network migration.  He wrote: "The way forward is to encourage technological change while preserving the attributes of network services that customers have come to expect – that set of values we have begun to call the Network Compact."

Wheeler provided an overview of the all-IP network migration.  He wrote: "The way forward is to encourage technological change while preserving the attributes of network services that customers have come to expect – that set of values we have begun to call the Network Compact."   Wheeler noted various FCC Commissioner comments in that blog post:

-Commissioner Pai said that the FCC should “embrace the future by expediting the IP Transition.”
-Commissioner Rosenworcel told us that “as we develop a new policy framework for IP networks, we must keep in mind the four enduring values that have always informed communications law — public safety, universal access, competition, and consumer protection.”
-Commissioner Clyburn has called upon the Commission “to carefully examine and collect data on the impact of technology transitions on consumers, public safety and competition.”

AT&T Petition and FCC Technology Transitions Task Force are encouraging trials:

 On November 7, 2012, AT&T petitioned the FCC to "Launch a Proceeding Concerning the TDM-to-IP Transition," GN Docket No. 12-353 (AT&T Wire Center Trials Petition). http://www.att.com/Common/about_us/files/pdf/fcc_filing.pdf
That document requested the FCC to “open a new proceeding to conduct, for a number of select wire centers, trial runs for a transition from legacy to next-generation services, including the retirement of TDM facilities and offerings” and that “the Commission should also seek public comment on how best to implement specific regulatory reforms within those wire centers on a trial basis.”

AT&T requested that the FCC consider conducting trials where certain equipment and services are retired and IP-based services are offered. These geographically limited trial runs, conducted after a public comment period on how they should be carried out, would help “guide the Commission’s nationwide efforts to facilitate the IP transition.”9 Such an approach, AT&T notes, will “enable the Commission to consider, from the ground up and on a competitively neutral basis, what, if any, legacy regulation remains appropriate after the IP transition.”

AT&T has set a date of 2020 to retire its TDM network and has been upgrading its IP-based service capabilities in its wireline markets via Project Velocity IP (VIP).  AT&T presented a progress report on the Project VIP at the June 2013 IEEE ComSocSCV meeting.  The event summary can be read at:  Telco Tours & Seminars Top ComSoc-SCV Activities http://www.comsoc.org/files/Publications/Magazines/gcn/pdf/gcn1213.pdf

The FCC's new "Technology Transitions Policy Task Force" was asked to move forward with real-world trials to obtain data that will be helpful to the Commission. The goal of any trials would be to gather a factual record to help determine what policies are appropriate to promote investment and innovation, while protecting consumers, promoting competition, and ensuring that emerging all-Internet Protocol (IP) networks remain resilient.   The FCC task force is seeking public comment on several potential trials relating to the ongoing transitions from copper to fiber, from wireline to wireless, and from time-division multiplexing (TDM) to IP based packet switched networks.

Technology Trials Proposed:

 The aforementioned FCC task force has proposed the following trials related to the all-IP network transition:
http://www.fcc.gov/document/technology-transitions-policy-task-force-see...
-VoIP Interconnection
-Public Safety - NG911
-Wireline to Wireless
-Geographic All-IP Trials
-Additional trials: numbering and related data bases, copper-to-fiber transition, retirement of copper?

The US Telecom Association was very supportive of such trials as well as the previously referenced AT&T petition.  In comments submitted on January 28, 2013, the trade organization wrote:  "The idea that the Commission should conduct real-world trials in order to better inform itself as to the technological and policy implications of the IP-transition is a way the Commission can continue its commitment to data-driven policy making. The Commission itself has urged carriers to 'begin planning for the transition to IP-to-IP interconnection' and the Commission-guided trials urged by AT&T would facilitate this effort."

"In particular, the AT&T Petition offers an opportunity for the Commission and state regulators to conduct informative, but geographically limited, trial runs for regulatory reform in discrete wire centers. AT&T correctly notes that such an approach will enable the Commission to consider, from the ground up and on a competitively neutral basis, what, if any, legacy regulation remains appropriate after the IP transition."

US Telecom's comments can be read at:  

http://www.ustelecom.org/sites/default/files/documents/USTelecom-IP-Tran...

Important Unanswered Issues for an all-IP network (i.e. retiring the PSTN/TDM/Digital Circuit Switched Network):

 Transition to an "all-IP" network implies retiring the PSTN, TDM/Digital Circuit Switched and all Wireless networks other than 4G with VoIP over LTE.  In our opinion, that is a huge undertaking that will be incredibly disruptive and take many years, if not decades.  Here are just a few point to ponder:

-Telcos and MSOs must universally deploy broadband for wireline VoIP to be ubiquitous. Currently, they make their deployment/build out decisions strategically- based on reasonable ROI.  Not every area in the U.S. has or will have wired broadband as a result.
-Many rural areas have little or no wireless coverage and certainly not 4G-LTE.  What happens to people who live in those areas, e.g. Arnold, CA.
-Even if wired or wireless broadband is available in many regions, there is likely to be only one or two network providers at most.  Hence, there is little or no choice in service which is effectively a monopoly.  Santa Clara, CA is in the heart of Silicon Valley, yet we now have only two choices for wired broadband- AT&T or Comcast.
-There is currently no Universal Service Fund/ Lifeline or discounted rate (for low income folks) for VoIP service.  Lifeline service is ONLY available for the PSTN/POTS.
-If an individual or family doesn't want or can't afford high speed Internet and/or broadband TV service, then it will most likely be uneconomical for the Telco/MSO to ONLY provide VoIP service over broadband access. This is the case for many poor people and older Americans!

-What happens to faxes/fax machines, which are still overwhelmingly based on analog PSTN access? The death of fax has been predicted for over a decade, yet it is still alive and kicking!

-Battery backup is required for an all-IP network to make emergency phone calls when power is lost.  There is a substantial montly charge for a battery backup box for AT&T's U-Verse VoIP service.   An AT&T subscriber must also have battery backup power for the Wi-Fi gateway to enable your AT&T U-verse services to function during a power outage. 

http://www.att.com/esupport/article.jsp?sid=KB407650&cv=803#fbid=qLQu26G...

-There will be a huge impact on business customers that use digital circuit switched networks if the proposed all-IP changes happen soon in the affected areas or "wire centers." What if a company's main or branch office site(s) are located in an all-IP wire center coverage area?  In that case, the business customer would have to give up it's digital PBXs or hosted ISDN PRI voice trunks and move to SIP trunks--even though the company is not nearly ready for a total enterprise-wide transition to an IP voice network.

-The transition from the classic PSTN to an all IP infrastructure will mandate the end of Signaling System 7 and the entire infrastructure that supports it. This is a substantial undertaking, the consequences of which are not fully understood. Can SS7-based functionalities be replicated on a broadband IP-based network? What would be the equivalent of a “voice grade” circuit? Is a SIP connection a functional equivalent for the key functionalities of SS7 switches? What about SMS/texts?

-The telephone numbering system provides a way for callers served by virtually any service provided in the world to reach one another. What will replace that system has yet to be determined. It surely won't be an IP address which is often dynamic and allocated for temporarilty reaching IP endpoints.

-Interconnection and Interoperability between IP and TDM networks is a work in progress. 

-Quality of Service/Reliability/Resiliency is largely unknown with an all IP network, which would need to scale to replace and reach all PSTN/TDM endpoints.  What would constitute an “outage,” and how should “outage” data be collected and evaluated? Here again, the battery back-up on power fail would need to be made mandatory and low cost or no cost to consumers and enterprises.

.........................................................................................................

Closing Comment:

Surely, there are more questions and issues in decommissioning PSTN/TDM/non-4G wireless networks and replacing them with an all-IP network.  BT tried to do that over a decade ago with it's 21st Century Global IP Network, which is a very long way from being realized today.  BT hoped to have over 50% of its customers transferred by 2008. Capital expenditure was put at £10 billion over five years, this being 75% of BT's total capital spending plans in that period.  But it didn't happen and there seems to be no progress reports from BT on 21CN for years!  Instead, it appears to have been renamed Next Generation Broadband Network which is described at:  http://www.bt-ngb.com/home

This should be a lesson in reality or at least a wake-up call for the FCC, AT&T, US Telecom Association and others who believe that a rapid transition to an all-IP Network is feasible.


 
References:

http://www.infoworld.com/d/networking/fcc-chief-pushes-open-internet-rob...

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/washington/wheeler-fcc-will-look-d...

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24885303/mountain-view-anti-wirel...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn_1GjpbLnA

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/01/09/fcc-chairman-offers-his-strongest-endorsement-yet-of-net-neutrality/
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2014/010914-fcc-chief-wheeler-pushes-op...

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2086600/fcc-chief-wheeler-pushes-open-int...

http://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-chairman-tom-wheeler-remarks-computer-hi...

http://www.fcc.gov/blog/ip-transition-starting-now

http://viodi.com/2013/09/25/tc3-part-2-likely-strategic-goals-for-next-f...

http://viodi.com/2013/12/09/fcc-delays-reverse-auction-till-2015-spectru...

http://viodi.com/2013/10/30/new-fcc-chair-tom-wheeler-faces-challenges-i...