ITU-T Focus Group on Cloud Computing (FG Cloud) was established further to ITU-T TSAG agreement at its meeting in Geneva, 8-11 February 2010 followed by ITU-T study groups and membership consultation.
1. Excerpts of IEEE 802.16 WG Session 70 meeting report
Task Group m (TGm): Advanced Air Interface
Task Group m (TGm) met and completed resolution of comments in Sponsor Ballot of draft P802.16m/D9. P802.16m/D10 will be prepared for recirculation prior to Session #71 in January. The existing IEEE 802.16m Work Plan from 18 March remains accurate. The IEEE 802 Executive Committee granted conditional approval to forward P802.16m to RevCom. The Working Group anticipates that the conditions will be met in early 2011. The TG issued a closing report, with minutes to follow.
Maintenance Task Group
The Maintenance Task Group addressed change requests and updated its database. It also drafted a response to a liaison statement from the WiMAX Forum. The TG issued a closing report and minutes.
GRIDMAN Task Group
The Working Group's GRIDMAN Task Group met to discuss activity under the P802.16n project. The project is amending IEEE Std 802.16 to provide for "Higher Reliability Networks." The WG agreed to adopt the TG's 802.16n System Requirements Document IEEE 802.16gman-10/0038r4 as a baseline. The TG issued a closing report, with minutes to follow.
Machine-to-Machine Task Group
The WG initiated activity under the P802.16p project, which was authorized by the IEEE-SA Standards board of 30 September. The project is amending IEEE Std 802.16 to provide "Enhancements to Support Machine-to-Machine Applications." The WG agreed to adopt the 802.16p System Requirements Document IEEE 802.16p-10/0004r1 as a baseline. A closing report and minutes were issued. The P802.16p PAR was assigned to a new Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Task Group, chaired by Ron Murias.
Comment: We wonder if IEEE 802.16m- the ITU-R approved 4G technology AKA WiMAX 2.0- will ever be deployed. One reason for skepticism is mobile operators endorsement of TDD-LTE. Terry Norman of Analysys Mason expresses his opinion at:
2. NIST Special Report 800-127, Guide to Securing WiMAX Wireless Communications
NIST says, WiMAX technology continues to adapt to market demands and provide enhanced user mobility. SP 800-127 discusses WiMAX wireless communication topologies, components, certifications, security features and related security concerns.
This report.recommends that organizations that have adopted WiMAX:
- Develop a robust wireless metropolitan area network security policy and enforce it;
- Assess WiMAX technical countermeasures before implementing a vendor's WiMAX technology;
- Require mutual authentication for WiMAX devices; and
- Implement FIPS-validated encryption algorithms employing FIPS-validated cryptographic modules to protect data communications.
The NIST document covers the security of the WiMAX air interface and user subscriber devices, including security services for device and user authentication; data confidentiality; data integrity; and replay protection. It does not address WiMAX network system specifications, which covers core network infrastructure and are primarily employed by commercial network operators.
“Like other networking technologies, all WiMAX systems must address threats arising from denial-of-service attacks, eavesdropping, man-in-the-middle attacks, message modification and resource misappropriation,” the guidelines say.
The publication explains the basics of WiMAX, detailing the security differences among the major versions of the IEEE 802.16 standard, along with information on the security capabilities and recommendations on securing WiMax technologies.
WiMax threats consist primarily of compromises to the radio links between WiMAX nodes. These radio links can be both line-of-sight and non-line-of-sight. Line-of-sight links generally are harder to attack than non-line-of-sight links because an adversary would have to physically locate equipment between the nodes to compromise the link.
Non-line-of-sight systems provide coverage over large geographic regions, which expands the potential staging areas both for clients and adversaries.
Infonetics Research: Carrier VoIP and IMS equipment revenue dips, but demand is up, especially in ChinaWed, 11/24/2010 - 20:26 — Alan Weissberger
In two new reports: "Service Provider VoIP Equipment and Subscribers-third quarter (3Q10)," and "IMS Equipment and Subscribers market share and forecast," Infonetics Research finds that although prices have dropped, worldwide demand has risen for VoIP infrastructure hardware. Apparently, large network transformations are driving the need for more IP-enabling products and services, including Internet Protocol Multimedia Subsystem (IMS).
While VoIP equipment shipments were up in the 3rd Q 2010, overall market revenue is decreasing despite growing demand for IP-enabling services, Infonetics Research predicts growth for VoIP equipment, especially with products that help in the migration to all-IP systems and those focused on improving mobile services. A key missing piece is mobile VoIP, which hasn't happened yet despite numerous predictions from many market research firms.
According to the Infonetics’ report: “Service Provider VoIP Equipment and Subscribers," the total service provider VoIP equipment market – including trunk media gateways, SBCs(Smart Business Communications Systems?), media servers, softswitches and voice application servers – decreased 9 percent from the second quarter to $511 million. But while revenue is down for the quarter, shipments for almost all segments in the market are up sequentially. Worldwide, Asia Pacific is the only region expected to post year-over-year revenue growth for service provider VoIP equipment in 2010, the report noted.
The IP multimedia subsystem space, is experiencing an increase in revenue as a result of the demand for VoIP equipment, according to Infonetics’ third-quarter “IMS Equipment and Subscribers" report. The worldwide IMS equipment market, including IMS core equipment and application servers, grew 4 percent in the third quarter, on the heels of a 34 percent jump in the previous quarter. Longer-term, the IMS market will get a boost from the push for enhanced mobile services, according to this report.
“The number-one story that will come out of 2010 for the IMS and carrier VoIP equipment markets is China, where conditions are driving volumes up and pushing prices down. There are large network transformation projects underway in China, so demand for equipment is very strong, but at the same time, vendors are willing to push the pricing limits to get into strategic accounts. In the third quarter of 2010, every product category except media servers was impacted by pricing pressures, so while shipments were up for most segments, total worldwide revenue took a hit. Looking at the long-term prospects, the network elements that are best poised for solid growth are those that facilitate the migration to all-IP networks, such as session border controllers (SBCs),” notes Diane Myers, directing analyst for VoIP and IMS at Infonetics Research.
Diane Myers, Directing Analyst, VoIP & IMS Infonetics Research (408) 583-3391 firstname.lastname@example.org
SERVICE PROVIDER VOIP MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
- The total service provider VoIP equipment market, including trunk media gateways, SBCs, media servers, softswitches, and voice application servers, decreased 9% from 2Q10 to 3Q10, to $511 million
- While revenue is down for the quarter, shipments for almost all segments in the market are up sequentially
- Asia Pacific is the only region expected to post year-over-year revenue growth in 2010 for service provider VoIP equipment
- In 3Q10, GENBAND leads the combined carrier VoIP and IMS equipment market for worldwide revenue
IMS MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
- The worldwide IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) equipment market, including IMS core equipment and application servers, grew 4% in 3Q10, on the heels of a 34% jump in the previous quarter
- In 3Q10, the 4 top vendors, Alcatel Lucent, Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia Siemens Networks, continue to fight it out for new deals and replacement RFPs
- Ericsson and Nokia Siemens saw revenue growth with CSCF in a relatively flat quarter
- Overall, the IMS equipment market is experiencing strong and healthy growth, driven in the near-term by the continued adoption of VoIP services and service provider migration of VoIP services to IMS networks
- Longer-term, the IMS market will get a boost from the push for enhanced mobile services, with LTE being the most significant driver
Top 5 VoIP and IMS Vendors by 3Q2010 Revenue are: GENBAND, Huawei, Alcatel-Lucent, Acme Packet, Metaswitch.
This includes: combined sales of worldwide trunk media gateway, softswitch, media server, VAS (value added service) and CSCF server market share. (CSCF=Call Session Control Function is a central component to signaling and control within the IP Multimedia Subsystem- IMS). Interestingly, these five companies only comprise approximately 60% of sales. The "Other" category of miscellaneous vendors accounts for about 40% of combined revenues.
About Infonetics’ quarterly reports:
1. Service Provider VoIP Equipment and Subscribers report provides worldwide and regional market share, market size, forecasts, and analysis for VoIP subscribers and media processing and call control carrier VoIP equipment, including high-, mid-, and low-density trunk media gateways, line access media gateways, SBCs, media servers, Class 4 and Class 5 softswitches, and voice application servers (IP Centrex/hosted IP PBX, IP trunking, and residential). Vendors tracked include Acme Packet, Alcatel-Lucent, AudioCodes, BroadSoft, Cisco, Dialogic, Ericsson, GENBAND, Huawei, Iperia, Italtel, MetaSwitch, Movius, Nokia Siemens, RadiSys Convedia, Sonus, Technicolor (Thomson), Tekelec, Xener, ZTE, and others.
2. IMS report provides worldwide and regional market size, market share, forecasts, and analysis of mobile and fixed-line IMS subscribers and equipment. Equipment tracked includes IMS voice and IM/presence application servers and IMS core equipment, including home subscriber servers (HSS), call session control function (CSCF) servers, media resource function (MRF), and breakout gateway control function (BGCF). The report includes an IMS deployment tracker by region, country, carrier, and vendor. Vendors tracked include Alcatel-Lucent, Broadsoft, Ericsson, Huawei, Mavenir, Nokia Siemens, ZTE and others.
If you are interested in buying an Infonetics report or discussing a consulting project? Please contact:
Larry Howard, Vice President
email@example.com +1 408.583.3335
Scott Coyne, Senior Account Director Eastern North America, Europe, Middle East
firstname.lastname@example.org +1 408.583.3395
Note: This author has no business relationship with Infonetics Research and never has. We are pleased to inform you that Infonetics co-founder Michael Howard is an IEEE member and has spoken at our June 24 ComSocSCV-TiE workshop on Mobile Apps and Infrastructure (his topic was mobile backhaul)
China - the world’s largest mobile market – had 38.64 million 3G users by the end of October 2010, a threefold increase year-on-year, according to figures from the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) cited in a Xinhua report. Approximately 25.38 million users were new subscribers in the past year.
The number of 3G users of each of China's top three operators - China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom - exceeded 10 million by the end of October. China Mobile had 16.98 million 3G connections as of 31 October, while China Unicom had 11.66 million. China Telecom, the country’s third-largest operator, doesn't disclose its 3G user numbers every month but earlier said it had 9.15 million 3G users at the end of September. Interestingly, China Mobile’s 3G lead doesn’t reflect its dominance in the market overall; it has only around 5 million more 3G connections than number-two player China Unicom, but controls a huge 70 percent market share of China’s total mobile sector, according to Wireless Intelligence. However, China Mobile’s 3G rollout uses homegrown technology TD-SCDMA, compared to its rivals’ use of the global, more popular technologies W-CDMA and CDMA EV-DO. China’s 3G base now equates to around 5 percent of its total mobile market, meaning the three operators have a long road ahead of them in converting their customers to the faster mobile broadband technology. Xinhua notes that earlier this month the ministry said that China aimed to have 150 million 3G mobile users by 2011.
Business revenue of mobile telecommunications made up 69.84 percent of the total, while fixed-line revenues accounted for 30.16 percent, dropping 3.2 percentage points year on year, the MIIT said
Meanwhile, a recent study has concluded that 3G adoption in India will be slow. This goes contrary to the high awareness campaigns currently being doled out by service providers for their 3G offerings, and the technology's famed capabilities to deliver broadband content.
Only one in five urban mobile subscribers would opt for 3G services in the short term, a new study by the Nielsen Company has found. It further noted that it may take as long as 8-10 years before a majority of mobile users move onto a 3G plan. The study was released by the Nielsen Company in New Delhi on Wednesday at the `Consumer 360' conference.
However, “The response from consumers has been encouraging, though it is too early to comment on the numbers since we have launched early November,” Deepak Gulati, executive president, mobility of Tata Teleservices Ltd (TTSL) said. Tata DoCoMo, the GSM service arm of TTSL, provides 3G services in nine of out of 22 telecom circles. On early adopters of 3G, he said, “Obviously the high end customers go for it initially.''
The study found that nearly 70 per cent of urban mobile subscribers are aware of 3G services and 63 per cent were familiar with it as a concept. “While service providers have succeeded in popularising the concept and articulating its promises, consumers seem tentative about their disposition to embrace the technology” said Arjun Urs, director - Client Solutions India of Nielsen.
The study also found that the most eager group ready to adopt 3G was “Power users largely made up of working professionals and internet-savvy youth. They told Nielsen they were eager to embrace higher speeds to access the internet and download large attachments,” Urs added.
The survey noted that 36 per cent of those polled indicated a strong disposition towards 3G adoption. Not surprisingly, less tech reliant groups, showed little enthusiasm about the next wave of mobile services.
While government-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd and Mahanagar Nigam Ltd have already launched their 3G services, the response to it has been rather poor, stated market observers. TTSL was the first private telecom provider to launch 3G services.
Market leader Bharti Airtel is expected to launch its 3G services in December, and Vodafone Essar is gearing up to launch its offering in January 2011, to be followed by the Aditya Birla Group-owned Idea Cellular Ltd.
The slow start expected for 3G in India comes on the heels of the much delayed 3G spectrum auctions and that country's 2G auction scandal. The November 24 2010 Financial Times reports that:
Mobile carriers in India have come under scrutiny this week, after a report by the national auditor concluded that the country’s telecoms ministry had sold off its 2G spectrum at a “throwaway price”, on a “first come, first serve basis”. The report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India estimated that undervaluations of licences allocated to domestic and foreign telecoms groups in 2008 might have cost the government a total of about $39bn in lost revenues. The report said about $8bn was lost from the excess allocation of spectrum licenses to existing wireless telecom operators. A further $31bn was lost due to the undervalued sale of spectrum to new entrants into the market. Analysts think this is likely to have a harmful impact on one of the country’s most successful industries.
Bharti Airtel, India’s biggest telecoms group by sales, and Vodafone of the UK risk becoming the first leading companies to be targeted by the government for having been awarded more spectrum than the auditors claim they should have, without paying any upfront charges.
There has been a huge public outcry over the cheap license given to new telecom firms in 2008 in a scam which cost the government `1.76 lakh crore. The Comptroller and Auditor General’s (CAG) in a report has castigated the former telecom minister, Mr A. Raja, for allocating 2G licenses to new players in a process which “ lacked transparency and appeared to have been done with the objective of favouring a few firms”.
After getting cheap licenses, these firms sold stake to foreign firms at huge valuation. This despite the fact that these new firms had no infrastructure on the ground. The government is facing heat from the opposition parties over the scam. They are demanding an investigation by the joint parliamentary committee (JPC) on the issue.
On November 14th, 2010, Mr. A Raja resigned as India's Telecom Minister due to this 2G Scandal. It was reported that the ruling Congress party leadership had advised Raja to step down so that parliament could function peacefully. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) said Raja should be prosecuted under the provisions of the Prevention of Corruption Act and a first information report should be registered against him. Mr. Raja is accused of causing a loss of Rs1.76tn ($40bn) to the exchequer by allocating 2G spectrum at 2001 rates.
Opinion: This author heard Mr Raja speak two years ago at the India Community Center (ICC) in Milpitas, CA. His presentation was not at all impressive (most of it was in Tamil) and we tend to side with the BJP party regarding prosecution for his role in this fiasco. Corruption is rampant in India and those that benefit from it must be shown that they won't be able to get away scott free. Economic growth will suffer if corruption by government officials is not punished.
With the global liquidity picture improving, more early stage companies are being funded by VCs and Angel Investors. There've been more IPOs and some big corporate acquisitions, which provide the needed "exit" for those investors. Some big M&A deals included: McAfee (Intel), Sybase (SAP) and 3PAR (HP). There were more IPOs this year too. IPO's like MakeMyTrip and Qlik Technologies were succesful. Finally, there were a raft of new startup acquisitions and several large VC financing rounds for still private companies.
Another dynamic at work clearly favors start up companies. It's that the largest companies are doing very little R & D For example, look at how much HP has cut back on the percentage of revenues devoted to R & D. And the disappearance of Bell Labs and other notable research institutions. This trend has accelerated recently, as the bad economy has led to further cuts in large company (and U.S. government) R & D spending. But start ups are all about doing new things in new ways. They are all about R & D in very selected areas. Hence, they become more attractive acquisition targets when larger companies are not innovating. In effect, innovation is being "outsourced" by large companies to start ups, which are often acquired (i.e. Cisco is famous for succeeding with this corporate strategy). More nimble, less bureacratic companies are seen as being more innovative and quicker to get their ideas to market then medium or large size companies.
On November 30th, TiE Silicon Valley (SV) Software Special Interest Group (SIG) convened a distinguished set of panelists to address growing software markets, technologies, applications, and investment outlook for start up companies in this space. The panel was to adress hot software segments and issues like:
- What areas of software are ripe for investing in 2011?
- Is the recession really over for software companies?
- Which parts of IT budgets will grow? Which are likely to get cut?
- What does it take to get funded now?
- Will exit windows stay open in 2011?
- How should startups navigate the current climate?
- Technology investments in the US vs. China and India (local control vs better value for investment capital, respectively)
The TiE-SV panel session participants were as follows:
Vispi Daver, Partner, Sierra Ventures
- Byron Deeter, Partner, BVP
- Mark Jacobsen, Managing Director, O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures
- Mitchell Kertzman, Managing Director, Hummer Winblad Venture Partners
- Ping Li, Accel Partners
The hot software market segments identified were the following:
- Business Intelligence- especially real time analytics which help companies make real time business decisions
- Big Data- large scale data storage management. At a time when it's possible to store more data then ever before- what should be retained and where?
- Cloud Computing- especially Software as a Service (AKA Application as a Service)
- Mobile HTML5 (the next revision of HTML- the standard for structuring and presenting content on the Web) and its effect on how mobile apps will be written in the future
As this global ComSoc Community web site focuses on communications technologies, we will restrict our coverage to the latter two software segments- Cloud Computing and Mobile HTML5.
The panelists saw huge opportunities in this space. One stated that even Cloud Computing niches could be big markets as all heavy duty computing moves from mainframes and servers in data centers to distributed computing in the cloud (i.e. the Internet). Here are some selected comments from the panelists:
- Application as a Service will be a massive enabler of new services. It's more attractive for start ups than Infrastructure as a Service or Platform as a Service (the other two layers of the Cloud Computing architecture).
- The middle layer of management and services is intriquing.
- Large companies are going through a consolidation phase as they plan to use cloud services.
- "Pure play "cloud service providers and software companies can take cloud leadership from larger companies that have more diverse agendas and strategies.
- Cloud computing redefines software layers, with virtualization and security of utmost importance.
- Amazon is a role model as a Cloud service provider [Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) is a web service that provides resizable compute capacity in the cloud. It is designed to make web-scale computing easier for developers.]
- "Virtualized desktop" could be another Cloud Computing service (no details provided).
- How to contol and maintain mobility of IT resources will be a challenge.
- Both mobile and fixed line access to the cloud will be provided, offering different capabilities and apps.
Background: The HTML5 specification was adopted as the starting point of the work of the new HTML working group of the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) in 2007. This working group published the First Public Working Draft of the specification on January 22, 2008. The specification is an ongoing work, and is expected to remain so for many years, although parts of HTML5 are going to be finished and implemented in browsers before the whole specification reaches final Recommendation status late in 2010 or early 2011.
This new standard incorporates features like video playback and drag-and-drop that have been previously dependent on third-party browser plug-ins such as Adobe Flash and Microsoft Silverlight.
Mitchell Kertzman stated that HTML5 might be a replacement for both Adobe's Flash and Oracle's Java. "HTML5 has the potential to deliver a much richer user experience. More engaging HTML5 based apps will be offered to mobile users." Continuing, Mr. Kertzman said, "Programmers and (mobile app) developers will take advantage of bandwidth and generate apps that enable you to do more than you can do today."
While the consumer software space was described as a "wild west," it seems that HTML5 (along with the Android platform) might concentrate efforts and initiatives such that software produced will run on more devices and hence have wider applicability.
We knew that VCs make initial investments of $500K - to $10M per start up company selected after passing their due diligence screens. What we were surprised to hear is that two of the VC panelists stated their company only made about four to six new investments per year. That's after receiving over 1,000 business plans from start ups during the same period of time.
So very few new start ups are evidently being funded by VCs these days. That's why the Angel Investor financing model is getting a lot of traction. Please refer to: Highlights of Nov 15th TiE Angels meeting http://viodi.com/2010/11/23/tie-2/
Prashant Shah, organizer of this panel session, believes the small number of start-ups funded may not be due to the sluggish economy, as many believe. Mr. Shah made the following comment clarifying the funding environment for start-ups:
"One thought that jumps out is on your statement of how few startups are getting funded. True that it's tough to get funding nowadays, but in reality, it has never actually been easy (with the possible exception of the dot com days). It's always been a challenge. So the 4 to 6 fundings a year would not necessarily be a significantly larger number if the economy was better. In fact, I would argue that in a better economy the percentage of fundings would be about the same because the number of business plans would go up as well. (There is a question of how fast venture firms could scale up in better times, but that's a discussion for another day)
My point is that sometime entrepreneurs forget when they seek VC money, they are competing for funding dollars against other startups who may be in a completely different market but represent better investment opportunities. That's they key to getting VC money - regardless of whether they are funding 4 deals a year or 40, entrepreneurs have to demonstrate their business will generate higher ROI than anything else in the deal pipeline."
TiECon 2010 and 2009 Conference Summary Reports:
FG-FN Mini Workshop: Lubljana, Slovenia Wednesday, 1 December (14:00 – 18:00)
Note: ITU-T SG13 established “Focus Group on Future Networks (FG-FN)” to share the discussion on Future Networks and ensure global common understanding about Future Networks with collaboration and harmonization with relevant entities and activities.
The Focus Group, by collaborating with worldwide future network (FN) communities (e.g., research institutes, forums, academia and etc), aims to collect and identify visions of future networks, based on new technologies, assess the interactions between future networks and new services, familiarize ITU-T and standardization communities with emerging attributes of future networks, and
encourage collaboration between ITU-T and FN communities.
Motivation for this workshop: FG FN made big progress during last 18 months. FG produced very tangible results (documents, database). It has established a very comprehensive program of work. This FG needs to communicate its achievements to the public (ITU, researcher, industry). FG FN will use mini workshop in Ljubljana to present our achievements to date.
Introduction – FG scope and objectives (Alojz Hudobivnik, Iskratel)
FGFN - the history of 18 months (Takashi Egawa, NEC)
Results of FG in details
Contributions analysis (Nozomu Nishinaga, NICT,)
FN Vision (Group moderator: Daisuke Matsubara, Hitachi)
FN Virtualization (Group moderator: Sangjin Jeong, ETRI)
FN energy savings (Moderator: Toshihiko Kurita, Fujitsu)
Database of world R&D projects about FN
Overview (as a source for now and the future)(Nozomu Nishinaga, NICT)
Presentation of some FP7 project (Alix Galis, UCL)
Korea Future Internet R&D Plan and ETRI Activities (Myung-Ki Shin, ETRI)
Presentation of AKARI project (Hideki Otsuki,NICT)
ICT research network in Slovenia (August Jauk, ARNES, CTO)
Further steps in standardization and the role of the ITU (Chaesub Lee, SG13 Chairman)
In its new report: "4G Fuels the Decade of Disruption," the Yankee Group predicts a slow start for 4G but says moves made by players in 2011 will determine their ultimate fate in the marketplace.
"Connectivity—especially mobile connectivity—drives disruption in the telecom arena,Once 4G takes hold, its impact will be swift and profound, and 2011 is the year to prepare."" said Jason Armitage, senior analyst at Yankee Group and a co-author of the report. We are hoping to have a phone interview with Jason who works and lives in London, England
Here are the 2011 predictions for 4G from Yankee Group:
1. 4G will be a "drop in the ocean." By the end of 2011, the world’s most important 4G technology (LTE) will account for only 0.04 percent of all global mobile lines (but 0.33% in US).
2. 4G will fail to win the enterprise. Currently, less than a third of enterprise decision-makers believe 4G is important; that number won’t budge by year end.
3. 4G killer device will be a hotspot. Users will gravitate to hotspots’ simplicity and savings, reducing 4G subscriptions in the long run.
4. Competition in the U.S. will create a 4G marketing mess. As operators slap the "4G" moniker on everything from WiMAX and LTE to HSPA+, confusion will abound.
5. A denial-of-service attack will take a 4G network down. In their rush to roll out 4G, operators are cutting corners on security; one unlucky operator will pay the price.
6. Chinese vendors will beat 3G incumbents in their own backyards. Both Huawei and ZTE will make key 4G wins outside Asia, to the detriment of established players.
7. 4G users will spend twice as much time on the mobile Web as their non-4G counterparts. Companies that invest in mobile Web sites and free or near-free rich media content will benefit most.
8. Mobile video will not drive consumers to 4G. Mobile video won’t be the killer 4G app everyone expects; instead, consumers will spend more time with music services like Pandora and Slacker.
9. The Web will not save operators in the mobile apps market. Operators think 4G will give them a leg up in mobile apps, but Apple and Google will still lead the market in 2011.
10. MVNO hype will build, but most of it will lead to nothing. 4G MVNOs will fail for the same reason most 2G and 3G MVNOs failed: Most won’t complement their hosts’ businesses.
11. Pricing will end in tiers. 4G will herald the introduction of tiered mobile data pricing models, and flat-rate pricing will be gone forever.
12. Carrier VoIP will still be AWOL, despite 4G. 4G’s speed and bandwidth are multimedia must-haves but not big voice necessities. Few operators will launch services before 2013, allowing over-the-top companies to gain an early lead.
13. Google will take the wheel in mobile data. Currently behind Apple and others in the mobile space, Google will quickly grab the mobile lead as 4G rolls out.
Infonetics Research (http://twitter.com/infonetics) released its 3Q10 report on 2G/3G Mobile Infrastructure and Subscribers market share and forecast.
MOBILE INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
. The worldwide 2G and 3G mobile infrastructure market grew 2% in 3Q10, to $8.8 billion
. The overall market is still down year-over-year (-20.7% from 3Q09), when the market was inflated by massive 3G rollouts in China
. All major segments of the market posted sequential gains, including radio access network (RAN), mobile switching subsystem (MSS), mobile packet core, and home location register (HLR) equipment
. Since its peak of $42.5 billion in 2008, annual spending on just RAN equipment -- base transceiver stations (BTS), base station controllers (BSC), and remote radio heads (RRH) -- is dropping almost $10 billion, to an expected $33.4 billion in 2010
. The GSM RAN equipment market bounced back in 3Q10, up 12.5% sequentially, led by major 2G capacity upgrades in China and India
. Ericsson remains the King of the Radio, with double the revenue market share of its nearest competitor, Nokia Siemens, for worldwide macrocell RAN equipment
. In the mobile packet core equipment segment -- in which Ericsson is also #1 -- just 3 quarters ago the spread between #2 Nokia Siemens and #3 Cisco was about 13.5 percentage points; in 3Q10 the distance between them is only 2 percentage points
. The number of mobile subscribers passed the 5 billion bar in 2010 and is on track to hit 6 billion between 2012 and 2013
-With the worldwide population now at 6.9 billion, it is very likely that mobile penetration will exceed the global population in the near future
Infonetics Analyst Comment:
"As we anticipated more than a year ago, in the third quarter of 2010 the mobile infrastructure market was marked by the start of 2G capacity upgrades and modernization projects, sustained but slowing 3G activity in North America, and the start of 3G rollouts in India. Despite the misleading '4G' pandemonium in the US, 2G is back in full force and will keep the planet busy for the next few years as global mobile penetration reaches 100%," predicts Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research's principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure.
More info at: www.infonetics.com
Cloud computing deployments are being announced on an almost daily basis. Cloud computing accelerates application development and deployment without upfront capital costs for servers and storage. For this reason, many enterprises, governments and network/service providers are now considering adopting cloud computing to provide more efficient and cost effective network services. The Cloud Computing market is forecast to be very big by IDC, Gartner Group, andother market research firms.
But there seems to be a lot of confusion regarding the service delivery method and lack of interoperability. More importantly, there are no solid standards for Infrastructure as a Service, Platform as a Service or Applications/Software as a Service, network infrastructure needed for them or the required network interfaces between customer-provider (UNI), or between cloud providers (NNI). This results in difficulties in exchanging information between cloud service providers and for users that change providers. It may also present a problem when bursting between a private cloud and different public clouds. Interoperability facilitates secure information exchange across platforms. Why isn't there more talk about these interfaces and network infrastructure (both fixed and mobile) for cloud computing?
Most cloud pundits assume the UNI will be a broadband IP VPN (over whatever PHY layer access is used). Will that IP VPN deliver the necessary performance, reliability/availablity and security that's required- particularly for access to a public cloud? And how do different cloud network providers communicate, e.g. what's the NNI? This is particularly important for Federated and Hybrid (Public-Private) Clouds, yet the topic is not discussed at Cloud Computing Conferences, Finally, we don't know of any standards organizations, including ITU-T FG-Cloud and IEEE Cloud Computing Initiative that are seriously pursuing these very important network aspects of Cloud. That said, the ITU-T FG-Cloud plans to work on the Cloud network infrastructure requirement and architecture design to fulfill intra-cloud, inter-cloud and the core transport network use cases, and network resource management issues as well. (See ITU-T FG Cloud section below). That's a start, but we think a lot more work will be necessary for true multi-vendor interoperability.
Cloud Computing represents a unique opportunity for service providers to provide bundled offerings which combine Network and IT resources. We think that service providers can leverage their network assets by providing five nine's network availability and excellent performance for secure end to end cloud services. Another opportunity for service providers is to evolve network resource allocation and control to be more dynamic, in order to provide on-demand provisioning of cloud services.
But what about the different types of network access, especially the choice between a L2 (Ethernet) and L3 (IP) VPN? And various scenarios for IP VPN -to-private line communications? In particular, what does the protocol stack look like for UNI and various types of NNI's? Who will decide these critical issues and promulgate the network related standards for cloud computing is anyone's guess at this time.
ITU-T FG Cloud Work on Network Infrastructure:
The ITU-T FG Cloud has had only three meetings. Among other things, it is pursuing work on cloud network infrastructure that's focused on several objectives: the ability to link existing networks services, Internet connectivity, L2/L3 VPN efficiency to deliver public or private cloud services. The ability to link a flexible L2 & L3 network management and cloud technology to form an integrated cloud infrastructure would enable various types of cloud services.
Three distinct cloud network types have been defined ny FG-Cloud:
1. Intra-cloud network: this network is to connect local cloud infrastructures, such as data center LAN used to connect servers, storage arrays and L4-L7 services (firewalls, load balancers, application acceleration devices, IDS/IPS...).
2. Core transport network (WAN/MAN): this is the network used by customers to access and consume cloud services deployed within the cloud provider's data center.
3. Inter-cloud network: this network role is to interconnect cloud infrastructures together. These cloud infrastructures may be owned by the same cloud provider or by different ones.
These three network components are essential for cloud services composition and delivery. In order to provide a real added value in support of cloud services, they must offer their network requirements (to cloud service users) in terms of flexibility, scalability,and on-demand resource provisioning. More importantly, advanced networking functions are necessary to ensure performance, security and availability of the various types of cloud services.
One of the most intriquing work areas of this FG-Cloud are the upper layer (L4-L7) services that may reside within the Cloud Transport Network. The ITU-FG takes this position:
"In order to transform the core transport network into "smart-pipes" with real added value for cloud services delivery, the core network component should be able to provide on-demand L4-L7 network services required to ensure the performance, security and availability. Some examples of this requirement are:
Security functions: provide on-demand security functions within the core transport network to protect and control customers traffic to cloud services. An example is firewalling functions and intrusion detection and prevention.
Performance: provide on-demand application acceleration and optimization services for cloud services. This is essential to ensure application performance because these application will be accessed remotely (from customers sites to the cloud providers sites) and it is well known that most of business applications were initially designed for LAN environment and are negatively impacted by the delays and packet loss of the core transport network."
In our opinion, this effort is commendible, but is just scratching the service. For sure, a lot more work lies ahead. So it may be years before we see a high level of interoperability amongst the many different types of cloud services and networks that support them.
IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group:
A call for participation for the IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group, sponsored by the IEEE Computer Society Standards Activities Board (SAB), was issued months ago. We have not seen an announcement on an initial meeting or conference call to get organized.. An IEEE Standards Study Group is the initial step in the process of developing a IEEE standard and is open to all interested individuals.
The mission of the IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group is to determine the feasibility of developing an open standards profile which defines options for portability and interoperability of cloud computing resources. These profiles should address issues such as interfaces to computing, storage, network, and content resources, as well as workload (program and data) interoperability and migration, security, fault-tolerance, agency, legal and regulatory, intra-cloud policy negotiation, and financial relationships. It is expected that there will be multiple architectural approaches from which to choose.
The profiles should also support the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), and Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) service models, and the private cloud, community cloud, hybrid cloud, and public cloud deployment models.
For further information and/or to be added to the IEEE CCSSG mailing list, please contact Steve Diamond, Chair, IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group, at ieee-ccssg-chair [at] intercloud [dot] org
Telecom outsourcing thriving; Ericsson, NSN, ALU, Huawei soon to be running 3/4 of world's networks?Tue, 12/21/2010 - 00:42 — Alan Weissberger
Infonetics Research (www.infonetics.com) released its updated Service Provider Outsourcing to Vendors market size, market share, and forecast report. It confirms the mega trend of telcos outsourcing their network operations, e.g. Sprint's network now managed by Ericsson.
"Fierce competition among telecom service providers around the world is driving them to increase operating expenses, and that in turn is forcing service providers to outsource more of their network tasks, because outsourcing is one of the last remaining ways to cut opex. With major outsourcing deals looming, Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks, Alcatel-Lucent, and Huawei may end up running three-quarters of the networks on this planet," notes Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research's principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure.
SERVICE PROVIDER OUTSOURCING HIGHLIGHTS
. By the end of 2010, telecom service providers worldwide will have outsourced about $53.5 billion worth of networking tasks to equipment vendors, 8% more than they outsourced in 2009
. Mobile network outsourcing is growing much faster than fixed (wireline) outsourcing: in 2008 revenue from mobile and fixed network outsourcing was roughly the same; by 2014, mobile network outsourcing will grow to account for 61% of all network outsourcing
. The major growth areas for telecom network outsourcing include network maintenance, planning, design, and operations
. Much of the growth in outsourced services is coming from EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) and Asia Pacific, and to a lesser extent, Central and Latin America, with the Oi-Nokia Siemens deal in Brazil and activity increasing in Mexico
Infonetics' Service Provider Outsourcing to Vendors tracks the revenue vendors derive from the services they offer to their service provider clients, which include mobile and fixed network planning and design, building, maintenance, operations, application service delivery, service provisioning and activation, and billing. The report tracks worldwide and regional market size, market share, and forecasts through 2014.
The report provides market share for Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Cisco, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Hitachi, HP, Huawei, IBM, Juniper Networks, Microsoft, Motorola, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, Tellabs, UTStarcom, ZTE, and others.
Please refer to this article for background info: Will Outsourcing of Managed Services and Network Maintenance Make Telecoms More Competitive?
Please refer to this article for background info: Will Outsourcing of Managed Services and Network Maintenance Make Telecoms More Competitive?
After their 8th meeting in Ljubljana, Slovenia, the ITU-T FG-Future Networks has been exchanging emails and having conference calls to agree on several output documents for their parent organization- SG 13. Here is a list of the output documents dated December 22, 2010:
There is also a Virtualization document being prepared.
FNvision or "Future Networks: Objectives and Design Goals" is the document that the FG spent most of their time and effort on. The FG proposes that SG13 to start the approval process for this document at thier January 2011 plenary meeting. That document can be downloaded for free at: http://www.itu.int/oth/T3A05000072/en
Other output documents, for each of the FG-FN meetings, may be accessed at: http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/focusgroups/fn/Pages/output.aspx
Working documents can ONLY be accessed by individuals that have an ITU-T TIES account. If your organization is an ITU-T member and you'd like to participate in this committee, please contact the FG-FN Chairman: "Takashi Egawa" email@example.com
Here's the link to an overview presentation of FG-FN by Mr. Egawa:
Call for Interest: Currently, IEEE is not participating in this committee although I'm told that IEEE is a Sector Member of ITU-T. Do you think IEEE ComSoc should have its own "Future Network" Task Force and if so, under what umbrella?