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Carrier WiFi: Market Research firms draw different conclusions..

Infonetics Research released excerpts from its latest Carrier WiFi Equipment report, which tracks WiFi equipment deployed by operators in public spaces for wireless internet access.

CARRIER WIFI EQUIPMENT MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
.    Globally, revenue for carrier WiFi equipment, including carrier WiFi access points and WiFi hotspot controllers, totaled $338 million in the first half of 2013 (1H13)
.    Carrier WiFi revenue has already surpassed 2/3 of total revenue for the prior year
.    The majority of carrier WiFi access points are WiFi hotspots
.    North America has consistently dominated carrier WiFi revenue share since 2007, though by 2017 regional share shifts to Asia Pacific and EMEA
.    As the carrier WiFi market evolves and more operators launch carrier WiFi services, Infonetics expects fluctuations in market share, with the top 5 positions-currently held by Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, Ruckus, and Alcatel-Lucent-potentially shuffled
ANALYST NOTE:
"Over the 5 years from 2013 to 2017, operators will spend a cumulative $8.5 billion on carrier WiFi equipment, led by mobile operators using carrier WiFi for data offload," said Richard Webb, directing analyst for microwave and carrier WiFi at Infonetics Research. "This strong growth will gain additional impetus from the proliferation of small cells with integrated WiFi over the coming years."

REPORT SYNOPSIS:
Infonetics' carrier WiFi report provides worldwide and regional market size, market share, forecasts through 2017, analysis, and trends for WiFi hotspot controllers and WiFi-only and dual-mode cellular/WiFi access points. The report includes carrier WiFi vendor announcements and customer wins and a Mobile Operator WiFi Offload Strategies Tracker. Vendors tracked: Airspan, Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Aruba Networks, Edgewater Wireless, Ericsson (BelAir Networks), Huawei, Motorola Solutions, NSN, Ruckus Wireless, and others.

To buy the report, contact Infonetics: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

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The “Wireless Network Infrastructure Bible: 2014 – 2020 - Macrocell RAN, Small Cells, RRH, DAS, Cloud RAN, Carrier WiFi, Mobile Core & Backhaul” report presents an in-depth assessment of 9 individual submarkets of the wireless network infrastructure opportunity. Besides analyzing the key market drivers, challenges, operator revenue potential, regional CapEx commitments, expert interviews and vendor strategies, the report also presents revenue and unit shipment forecasts for the market from 2014 to 2020 at a regional as well as a global scale. Historical figures are also provided for 2010, 2011 and 2013.

Key Findings:

The report has the following key findings:

  • Between 2014 and 2020, the 2G, 3G & 4G wireless network infrastructure market is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 5%
  • Vendors are increasing their focus on profit margins. Many are already cutting staff, embracing operational excellence, evolving their new business models, acquiring niche businesses and expanding their managed services offerings
  • New CapEx commitment avenues such as HetNet infrastructure and virtualization will usher industry restructuring. The wireless network infrastructure market will consolidate so as to eliminate one of the current global players by 2020
  • As wireless carriers look to offload traffic from their overburdened macrocell infrastructure, HetNet infrastructure will represent a market worth $43 Billion in 2020
  • Operators will ramp up on backhaul, aggregation, transport, routing based on IP and Ethernet technologies for offering mobile broadband services
  • Developing market growth will be a significant factor during the forecast period, with China and India seeing some of the highest levels of growth, both in terms of shipments and in the size of their installed base. After 2014, developing countries and their requirements will begin to shape future infrastructure technologies and architectures
  • Due to the investments in a single RAN technology, future LTE investments will cost much less than early investments of the technology
  • Supplemented with a drive towards virtualization, a limited amount of hardware installation will be needed when wireless carriers upgrade to LTE in the future
  • From 2016 onwards wireless carriers and vendors will spend at least $1 Billion per annum in R&D spending to drive standardization and commercialization of 5G technology
  • Voice over LTE (VoLTE) subscriptions will surpass 700 Million by 2020

Much more info at:  http://www.reportsnreports.com/reports/271714-the-wireless-network-infrastructure-bible-2014-2020-macrocell-ran-small-cells-rrh-das-cloud-ran-carrier-wifi-mobile-core-backhaul.html

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In Nov 2013, Research & Markets released a similar report titled: Small cells & Carrier Wifi

The need for Wi-Fi offloading is assessed and the future for carrier Wi-Fi analyzed. The report also presents the firm's mobile traffic forecasts and identifies the share of mobile traffic offloaded to Wi-Fi. There is also a synopsis in ppt format.  The companies evaluated are: 

- Airvana
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Broadcom
- Cisco
- Ericsson
- Huawei Technologies
- ip.access
- NEC Corporation
- NETGEAR
- Nokia Siemens Networks
- QUALCOMM
- Samsung Electronics
- UbeeAirWalk
- Ubiquisys
- ZTE

 

More info at:  http://www.researchandmarkets.com/

 

Infonetics: SDN to play big role in Data Centers/Enterprise Networking; IEEE ComSocSCV Jan 8, 2014 Meeting: "Open Networking"

Introduction:

Infonetics Research released market size and forecasts from its new Data Center and Enterprise SDN Hardware and Software report, which defines and sizes the market for software-defined networks (SDN). The report provides data for important SDN market characteristics including product categories, definitions, and worldwide and regional market size. Notably, the report tracks and forecasts SDN controllers and Ethernet switches in-use for SDN - the 'real' market for SDN - separately from SDN-capable Ethernet switches.

The report also includes SDN market analysis, trends, vendor announcements, and a tracker of SDN products currently shipping. 

ANALYST NOTE:

"The important question that everyone wants answered is, 'What's the real market for SDN?'," says Cliff Grossner, Ph.D., directing analyst for data center and cloud at Infonetics Research. "It's still early days, but our research over the last two years confirms that SDN controllers and Ethernet switches in-use for SDN will play a role in enterprise and data center networks, growing to a $3.1 billion market by 2017." 

"Wide scale in-use SDN deployments will occur first in the data center with large enterprises and cloud service providers, followed closely by the enterprise LAN," continues Grossner. "We're already seeing significant use cases for SDN in the enterprise LAN providing security and unification of wired and wireless networks, and enabling BYOD (bring your own device)."

DATA CENTER AND ENTERPRISE SDN MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:  

  • SDN is going through a classic market adoption cycle, with many new entrants looking to gain a toe-hold, and the majority of enterprises still kicking the tires.    
  • Vendors shipping SDN products in 2013 include Alcatel-Lucent, Big Switch, Brocade, Cisco, Cumulus, Dell, Extreme, HP, Huawei, IBM, Juniper, Midokura, NEC, Pica8, Plexxi, Plumgrid, VMware and others.    
  • The few early deployments for SDN-Google, NTT, AT&T, Verizon, DT, BT, and China Mobile-are in large data centers of cloud service providers and large enterprises.    
  • 10% of Ethernet switches will be in-use for SDN by 2017.    
  • North America is where SDN got its start, and the region will claim nearly 50% SDN revenue market share through 2017

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To learn more or buy the report, contact Infonetics: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

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Jan 8, 2014 ComSoc SCV meeting on Open Networking will address SDN and other approaches to "Open Networking"....

Session Abstract:

"Open Networking" is a very popular industry initiative that aims to make networking equipment programmable and efficient while also lowering costs, especially OPEX.  

In this new paradigm, network operators may choose the software to control their networks- independent of their choice of networking hardware.  There have been several architectures proposed to realize "Open Networking," including: Software Defined Networking (SDN)- with strict separation of data and control planes, Overlay models, Network Virtualization (& ETSI NFV), Linux based Network OS's -with embedded control plane software- running on bare metal switches, and many vendor proprietary solutions.

In this highly informative session, executives from three "Open Networking" vendors (all private companies with no installed base to protect) will address the topic from different perspectives.  

-Big Switch Networks CEO will present an overview of recent developments in SDN, describe architectures and use cases and give examples of recent production SDN deployment models; 

-Arista Networks CTO will higlight the benefits of a Linux based network OS, including  "closed Linux", "Bare linux", and "Open Linux"

-Plexxi Co-founder will describe an open policy control and state implementation facilitating true open networking (more than just "programming" network equipment).

The three presentations will be followed by a lively panel session where both pre-submitted and live audience questions/issues will be addressed.

Session Chair:  Saurabh Sureka, ComSocSCV Vice Chair

Session Organizer:  Alan J Weissberger, ComSoc Community Content Manager

For meeting details and RSVP instructions, please visit:  http://comsocscv.org/

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Please submit any questions or panel discussion topics to session chair Saurabh Sureka : sab@ieee.org

More Broadband Deployments Needed for Economic Growth

The U.S. labor force is projected to grow slower than in the past, putting negative pressure on the overall rate of economic growth. Broadband-enabled innovations are among the most important drivers of productivity growth, which can help to counterbalance the effect of slower work force growth. Faster, smarter, and more secure broadband networks are critical enablers, providing a mechanism to gather, process, and disseminate valuable information, services, and products.

A primary objective of communications policy should be to encourage the rapid and efficient deployment of more and better broadband capability across the economy, enabling the wide adoption of productivity-enhancing innovations. The U.S. can accomplish this by removing barriers to investment by broadband providers, eliminating legacy burdens, and encouraging the migration to Internet Protocol networks. 

http://www.ustelecom.org/blog/broadband-boost-needed-economic-growth?utm_source=TDL&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=120613

AJW Comment: We feel the phase out of the PSTN and replacement with IP Telephony/fax will take much more time than people expect.  We'll provide the reasons why in a forthcoming blog post.

NSA snooping underscores need for multi-layered security in the data center: Google & Yahoo hit; Microsoft fights back!

"The most recent revelation that the NSA has been secretly siphoning data from Google and Yahoo! data centers worldwide has put a laser focus on the need for security at all levels of the data center, from layer 1 transport all the way up to individual applications and data. The world's never been more tuned into privacy and security," notes Jeff Wilson, principal analyst for security at Infonetics Research.

Infonetics just released excerpts from its latest Data Center Security Products report, which tracks data center security appliances and virtual security appliances.

DATA CENTER SECURITY MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
.    While software-defined networks (SDN) and network functions virtualization (NFV) are forcing networking vendors to offer new form factors or to re-architect solutions, working with OpenFlow and other SDN technologies is an evolutionary change for security vendors, who have been adapting products for virtualized environments for over 5 years
.    Global revenue for the ported virtual security appliances segment of the larger data center security appliance market grew 4% between the first and second quarters of 2013, to $107 million
.    Purpose-built virtual security appliances are forecast by Infonetics to grow at a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 2012 to 2017
.    The virtual appliance vendor landscape is crowded with a mix of established security players, virtualization platform vendors, and specialist vendors

DATA CENTER SECURITY REPORT SYNOPSIS
Infonetics' biannual data center security report provides worldwide and regional market size, market share, forecasts through 2017, analysis, and trends for purpose-built virtual security appliances and multiple segments of ported virtual security appliances and data center security appliances. Vendors tracked: Arbor Networks, Blue Coat, Check Point, Cisco, Fortinet, GenieNRM, HP, ISS, Juniper, McAfee, Narus, SonicWall, Sourcefire, Stonesoft, Symantec, Trend Micro, WatchGuard, Websense, and others.

To buy the report, contact Infonetics: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

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DATA CENTER SECURITY WEBINAR
Join Infonetics Dec. 10 for Data Center Firewalls: The New Performance Requirements, a live event that examines new high-speed, high-capacity data center security solutions: http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=708420&s=1&k=93D3BBD5218FE00E14D1BCEDFE6834F7
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Related articles:

19 Ways to Build Physical Security into a Data Center

http://www.csoonline.com/article/220665/19-ways-to-build-physical-security-into-a-data-center

Security Drives Major Transition in the Network and Data Center

http://blogs.cisco.com/security/security-drives-major-transition-in-the-network-and-data-center/

NSA infiltrates links to Yahoo, Google data centers worldwide

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nsa-infiltrates-links-to-yahoo-google-data-centers-worldwide-snowden-documents-say/2013/10/30/e51d661e-4166-11e3-8b74-d89d714ca4dd_story.html

Internet Firms Step Up Efforts to Stop Spying

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/05/technology/internet-firms-step-up-efforts-to-stop-spying.html?ref=nicoleperlroth 

Microsoft fights back against NSA 'snooping'

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/05/tech/web/microsoft-nsa-snooping/

Microsoft’s General Counsel: N.S.A. Hacks Were an ‘Earthquake’ for Tech

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/05/microsofts-general-counsel-n-s-a-hacks-were-an-earthquake-for-tech/?ref=nicoleperlroth

Dell 'Oro Group: Double-Digit Growth for Core Router Market Expected in 2014

According to a newly published report by Dell'Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the networking and telecommunications industries, the Service Provider Core Router market grew by seven percent in the third quarter of 2013 versus the year-ago period.  After almost two years of year-over-year declines, this second consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth reflected the increased emphasis service providers have placed on the backbone of their networks.

"All major core routing vendors have recently introduced, or will soon introduce new core routing platforms with significantly increased capacity," said Alam Tamboli, Business Analyst at Dell'Oro Group.  "We expect the confluence of these new products to drive the core router market to double-digit growth for the full-year 2014 as service providers qualify these new products for their networks," added Tamboli.

Service Provider Core Router Market 3Q13—Top Four Vendors Comprise 98% Share 

  • #1 Cisco:  remained the number-one ranked vendor and has introduced two new core routing platforms during the past six months. 
  • #2 Juniper: new product offerings gave the company a more complete core router product portfolio and spurred year-over-year growth in the third quarter.   
  • #3 Huawei:  contract wins to provide its new higher capacity router to both domestic Chinese and international service providers drove year-over-year growth.
  • #4 Alcatel-Lucent:  held fourth place with sales of its first core routing product.

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To purchase this report, please call Julie Learmond-Criqui at +1.650.622.9400 x244 or email Julie@DellOro.com

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Related Infonetics report: Carrier router/switch market roars back in 2Q13

http://www.infonetics.com/pr/2013/2Q13-Service-Provider-Routers-Switches-Market-Highlights.asp

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Another reference for Router/Switch market:  http://www.acgresearch.net/domain-expertise/routingswitching.aspx

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FBR's Scott Thompson thoughts: "Clearly, we are in the beginning stages of a shift in network architecture. The new architecture assists carriers by driving more intelligence and flexibility at the optical layer, which creates substantial savings at the switching and routing layers. As this shift progresses, the optical sector is likely to benefit significantly."

Thompson predicts a continued decline in SP switch/routing revenues due to this perceived new network architecture.

 

ITU-T SG16 (Multimedia) Update: New standard for e-Health devices & the close of H.264 development cycle

In a move signifying an important milestone for global e-health standardization, ITU members have reached first-stage approval (‘consent’) on the transposition of Continua Health Alliance’s Design Guidelines into Recommendation ITU-T H.810 “Interoperability design guidelines for personal health systems”.

Consent has also been reached on the final extensions to ITU’s Primetime Emmy award winning video codec, Recommendation ITU-T H.264, concluding 10 years of ongoing work since the standard was first approved in 2003.

These achievements come as part of the output of a meeting of ITU-T Study Group 16 (Multimedia) in Geneva, 28 October to 8 November 2013, at which 18 texts found consent and 5 were approved.

Continua Health Alliance is an international non-profit industry organization enabling end-to-end, plug-and-play connectivity of devices and services for personal health management and healthcare delivery. The Continua Design Guidelines (CDG) embodied by ITU-T H.810 have garnered strong industry support and their formalization as an ITU-T Recommendation will stimulate their global adoption, improving device interoperability and paving the way for complementary e-health standards.

Recommendation ITU-T H.810 contains specifications to ensure the interoperability of devices used for applications monitoring personal health. The guidelines focus on the following interfaces:

· TAN-IF: Interface between touch area network (TAN) health devices and application hosting devices (AHDs)

· PAN-IF: Interface between personal area network (PAN) health devices and AHDs

· LAN-IF: Interface between local area network (LAN) health devices and AHDs

· WAN-IF: Interface between AHDs and wide area network (WAN) health devices

· HRN-IF: Interface between WAN health devices and Health Record Network health devices 

SG16 also reached consent on what are the final updates to Recommendation ITU-T H.264, marking the first occasion in 15 years that no active work items remain open on planned extensions to the standard.
 
 Read more:   http://newslog.itu.int/archives/216

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Video:  Prof. Thomas Wiegand, one of the co-authors of the award-winning video codec ITU-T H.264, on tactile Internet—a way to better connect moving objects (cars, robots, humans, smart grid, etc):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpuVVR_pI9c&list=PLpoIPNlF8P2PacVXmmIdJDVhJjk4ptutO

 

Infonetics: Service Provider CAPEX to Grow at 2% CAGR to 2017

Infonetics Research released excerpts from its latest Service Provider Capex, Revenue, and Capex by Equipment Type report, which tracks telecom operator revenue and capital expenditures (capex) by operator type, region, and equipment segment and provides insight into telecom spending trends.

CAPEX REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
.    Europe's Big 5-Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telecom Italia, Telefónica, and Vodafone-slightly increased their capex year-over-year, a sign they remain committed to investing in their networks despite revenue declines
.    Infonetics projects most equipment segments to grow in 2013, with the exception of voice, broadband aggregation, and video infrastructure
.    Global telecom services revenue is anticipated to hit US$2 trillion in 2013
.    Global telecom carrier capex is forecast by Infonetics to grow at a 2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2012 to 2017, reaching US$355 billion
.    Wireless players are expected to continue their capex foray through 2017 at the expense of incumbents, who will see their share shrink
.    Asia Pacific will remain the world's largest spender through at least 2017

                          

Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics at Infonetics Research wrote:

"Despite slow growth in 2012, the fundamentals are intact and 2013 is shaping up as the third year of an investment cycle characterized by capped capex in western countries, a hike in Japan, and the return of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), which will provide most of the fuel for 6% year-over-year growth globally." 

To buy the report, contact Infonetics: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

Comment:  Infonetics' sobering forecast is a far cry from the late 1990s CAPEX boom years.  It appears that most of the Western world's infrastructure is already built-out and growth is coming from developing countries.  We're quite surprised that new LTE networks, initial deployments of LTE Advanced, 100G b/sec fiber optic core network backbones, fiber to the premises/ node/ commercial buildings, SDN/NFV, and upgraded cloud network access aren't contributing more to Service Provider CAPEX.

"The (network) core is a fraction of our capex, our costs are in the radio access network, mostly in radios, and those aren't going to be virtualized right now," said Fred Feisullin, senior network architect in the CTO's office of Sprint. "The bigger gains are the new revenue sources that can be generated, then followed on by lower opex which will take much longer to be realized, then capex, maybe," he added.

http://www.lightreading.com/carrier-sdn/sdn-architectures/carriers-say-s...

 

 

 

GSMA's Global LTE Market Forecast; Infonetics: LTE Advanced Backhaul drives Microwave Market

The GSM Association (GSMA) 's research arm, GSMA Intelligence, put out its latest 4G projections which predict that LTE will account for one in eight, or 1 billion out of 8 billion, global mobile connections in the next three years. That's up from the 176 million LTE connections reached to date.

The GSMA says nearly 500 LTE networks will be in service across 128 countries in 2017, roughly doubling the number of currrent LTE networks. The biggest difference will be where the networks are. Today, about 20% of the global population is within an LTE network coverage range, but that number climbs to 90% in the US alone compared to 47% in Europe and 10% in Asia.

The US currently makes up 46% of global LTE connections, but by 2017, the GSMA expects Asia to account for 47% of the global connections as more networks are rolled out in markets such as China and India. Right now, South Korea is the world leader with half of its connections on LTE, compared to 20% in Japan and the US.

GSMA also found that LTE users consume an average of 1.5GB of data per month, almost twice the amount consumed by non-LTE users. And, in developing countries, LTE users can generate ARPU that's seven to 20 times greater than non-LTE users. In developed markets, ARPU is around 10% to 40% higher.

LTE networks have been deployed in 12 different frequency bands to date, but four out of five live LTE networks are in one of four bands: 700MHz, 800MHz, 1800MHz, or 2600MHz.

GSMA research found that:

  • In most cases, the migration to 4G-LTE is happening considerably faster than the earlier migration from 2G to 3G
  • LTE users consume 1.5 GB of data per month on average - almost twice the average amount consumed by non-LTE users
  •  In developing economies, operators have noted that LTE users can generate ARPU seven to 20 times greater than non-LTE users, while in developed markets operators have found that LTE can generate an ARPU uplift ranging from 10% to 40%
  • Four out of five mobile operators that have acquired ‘new’ spectrum since January 2010 have been allocated airwaves aimed at supporting the launch of LTE networks
  • LTE networks worldwide have been deployed in 12 different frequency bands to date, although four out of five live LTE networks today are deployed in one of four bands: 700 MHz, 800 MHz, 1800 MHz or 2600 MHz
  • The average retail price (before discounts and subsidies) of LTE smartphones in developed markets such as the US has remained unchanged at around $450 for the last few years
  •  Handset subsidies have contributed considerably to the increase in LTE penetration over the last two years, but operators have also become more innovative in their pricing

For more information see:  Global LTE network forecasts and assumptions, 2013–17

https://gsmaintelligence.com/analysis/2013/11/global-lte-network-forecasts-and-assumptions-201317/408/

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Infonetics Research released excerpts from its 3rd quarter 2013 (3Q13) Microwave Equipment report, which tracks time-division multiplexing (TDM), Ethernet, and dual Ethernet/TDM microwave equipment.  In that report, Richard Webb, directing analyst for microwave and carrier WiFi at Infonetics Research wrote:

"The next round of backhaul market growth will be driven by macro LTE-Advanced upgrades and small cell deployments, both of which will require very low latency solutions," continues Webb. "This will begin to make an impact from 2014 and boost the market for a few years."

"The next round of backhaul market growth will be driven by macro LTE-Advanced upgrades and small cell deployments, both of which will require very low latency solutions. This will begin to make an impact from 2014 and boost the market for a few years," Webb added.

3Q13 MICROWAVE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
.    Globally, in 3Q13 the microwave equipment market totaled $1.16 billion, up 2% from 2Q13, but down 7% from 3Q12
.    All-packet microwave accounted for around 23% of total microwave equipment revenue
.    Ericsson is again the microwave revenue market share leader in 3Q13, followed by Huawei, who reclaimed 2nd position from NEC
.    The overall microwave equipment market will grow at just a 1.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2012-2017, as the healthy growth of Ethernet microwave is masked by the disappearing TDM microwave segment and the rapidly declining dual Ethernet/TDM microwave segment

                                           

TO BUY INFONETICS REPORTS, CONTACT:
N. America (West), Asia Pacific: Larry Howard, larry@infonetics.com, +1 408-583-3335
N. America (East, Midwest), L. America: Scott Coyne, scott@infonetics.com, +1 408-583-3395
EMEA, India, Singapore: George Stojsavljevic, george@infonetics.com, +44 755-488-1623
Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

 

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Infonetics Survey: Operators answer the big questions about metro 100G and ROADM deployments

Infonetics Research released excerpts from its 40G/100G and ROADM Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey, which details the plans of operators transitioning optical transmission and switching equipment to higher-speed 40G and 100G wavelengths.

Based on respondent ratings of various technologies for optical deployments in metro regional networks, most operators prefer the same solution they already use in the long haul in the metro, albeit with lower specs and cost, Infonetics' survey shows. Most new technologies designed to address the metro 100G opportunity (not all in the survey are shown in the accompanying Infonetics chart) were rated highly by only a few respondents.

ABOUT INFONETICS' 40G/100G/ROADM SURVEY:
For its 26-page 40G/100G and ROADM strategies survey, Infonetics interviewed 28 incumbent, competitive, mobile and cable operators from Europe, North America, Asia and Latin America that have an optical transport network using WDM. Together the respondents represent a significant ~40% of the world's telecom capex and revenue. The survey answers questions such as:
.    The extent to which coherent technology is and will be deployed in existing brownfield networks versus new greenfield builds
.    The magnitude and timing of future metro and core 100G deployments
.    Preferred technologies for 100G metro and core deployments, including direct-detect 100G and Raman amplification
.    How disruptive the rollout of 100G in the metro will be for vendor market share
.    ROADM node deployment growth, as well as expected changes in the size and scale of ROADM nodes
.    Service provider perceptions of and expectations for the cost of colorless, directionless, contentionless (CDC) ROADMs
.    The rate of adoption of 100GbE clients, a key driver of metro 100G demand

                                       

 

ANALYST NOTE:
"The next big questions around 100G optical technology are about deployments in the metro network: When will deployments kick in, what will the volume be, which technologies will make the transition possible - advanced modulation, Raman amplification, pluggable formats, non-coherent approaches? We asked service providers around the world these questions and many more in our latest optical survey, and we learned a lot about what is about to happen in the market," says Andrew Schmitt, principal analyst for optical at Infonetics Research.

Schmitt continues: "We now know, for example, that based on current operator thinking, 2016 will be the year that coherent 100G technology arrives in volume in metro networks. That is also when we expect cost-per-Gigabit pricing for 100G to edge out 10G in shorter reach applications. Right now what most people want is just what they have now, only cheaper," adds Schmitt.

To buy the survey, contact Infonetics: http://www.infonetics.com/contact.asp

FREE WEBINAR: ALL ABOUT EDGE P-OTS
Join analyst Andrew Schmitt for a live debate about the advantages of a packet-optical transport system (P-OTS) architecture, integrating multiple layers, achieving optical layer-like transparency with different technologies, the role of software-defined networks (SDNs) in P-OTS, and more.

All About Edge P-OTS, Live Wednesday, December 4, 11:00 AM EST:
http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=701343&s=1&k=035B786667CFC4BC1BAD2D1AAD952B11

Global Optical Network Hardware Sales Down, but Up in North America

Infonetics Research released vendor market share and preliminary analysis from its 3rd quarter 2013 (3Q13) Optical Network Hardware report. (Full report published November 26.)  Seems like North America tier 1 carriers are spending big on 100G optical links.

3Q13 OPTICAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
.    Globally, the optical network hardware market (WDM and SONET/SDH) is down 7% sequentially in 3Q13, and down 1% from the year-ago quarter
.    Total optical spending is flat on a rolling 4-quarter basis, with WDM growth accelerating and notching a 5th consecutive quarter of growth in 3Q13
.    North America optical spending jumped 13.4% year-over-year in 3Q13 following an 11.1% YoY increase the previous quarter, driven by aggressive 100G rollouts by tier 1 operators
.    In 3Q13, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) WDM spending declined on a year-over-year and sequential basis, nearing the record low set in 1Q13
.    Japan dragged down the Asia Pacific optical market in 3Q13, a result of spending retracing huge gains in 2012
.    Huawei, Ciena, and Alcatel-Lucent are the WDM market share leaders in 3Q13

ANALYST NOTE:
"In the third quarter of 2013, sales of WDM optical equipment are up 4% from a year ago and remain at the elevated levels reached earlier in the year, but overall optical spending is down on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-over basis," says Andrew Schmitt, principal analyst for optical at Infonetics Research.

Schmitt adds: "Looking ahead, we expect tier 1 carriers to dial back spending. Capex was so strong in the first and second quarters of 2013, it's unreasonable to anticipate a big flush in the fourth quarter, especially in North America. There's a general weakness in the market, even from carriers that didn't aggressively ramp spending earlier this year."

                       

 

ABOUT THE OPTICAL REPORT:
Infonetics' quarterly optical hardware report provides worldwide and regional market size, market share, forecasts through 2017, analysis, and trends for metro and long haul SONET/SDH and WDM equipment, Ethernet optical ports, SONET/SDH/POS ports, and WDM ports. Vendors tracked: Adtran, Adva, Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Cisco, Cyan, ECI, Fujitsu, Huawei, Infinera, NEC, Coriant (NSN), Tellabs, Transmode, Tyco Telecom, ZTE, and others.

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Market research firm Ovum has a different forecast.  The optical networks (ON) market will exceed US$17.5bn by 2018, for a 3.1 percent CAGR from 2012, predicts global analyst firm Ovum. An exceptionally strong 2Q13 has signaled the beginning of a spending bounce-back.  2Q13 was the strongest quarter in the last six and was the 7th highest quarter in the last 10 years.

In a new forecast analysis*, Global ON is projected to be up 1.1 percent in 2013 compared to 2012 based on positive growth forecasts for North America, SLTE, Asia-Pacific and South & Central America.

“Ovum’s 9.1 percent growth projection for North American ON sales in 2013 signals a solid bounce-back year after two years of non-growth” says Ian Redpath, Analyst, Network Infrastructure and author of the report.  “Network core investments are resuming and 100G is being deployed in volumes. The North American tier-1 communications service providers (CSPs) and cable operators are investing in their core network to support all traffic types. ”

 

http://ovum.com/press_releases/ovum-predicts-global-optical-networks-market-will-exceed-us17-5bn-in-2018-as-100g-surges/

 

Huawei is leading the global optical networking (ON) space with 21 percent market share in the third quarter of 2013, said Ovum.  Huawei’s Chinese rival ZTE has 13 percent market share in Q3 in ON.  Alcatel Lucent is in the third position with 11 percent ON market share.

The Ovum report says telecom vendors Ciena, Fujitsu and Infinera grew revenues sequentially and year over year, thanks to their presence in North America. Infinera moved into the top 10 globally, ousting Coriant.

Global optical networking spending decreased 9 percent to $3.7 billion in Q3.

Ron Kline, principal analyst – Network Infrastructure at Ovum, said total spending may be under pressure, but when it comes to deploying the latest infrastructure to support exploding bandwidth requirements, the demand for 100G, OTN and packet switching capabilities provided by CPO gear continues to see strong growth among telecom operators.

The Ovum report says sequential and year-over-year gains in North America have mitigated declines in Asia-Pacific, EMEA and South & Central America. Market spending continues to fluctuate by quarter depending on region/sub region and seasonal spending patterns, resulting in stagnant sales on a global level.

The telecom analysis from Ovum says there will be 1 percent growth in ON in 2013 to $14.8 billion and exceeding $17.5 billion by 2018.

Strong Tier-1 N.A. operator spending drove increased converged packet optical (CPO) and 100G deployments in the North America. ON revenues in the region topped $1.1 billion in Q3.

Ovum says spending for ROADM, 40G and 100G all increased slightly over the prior quarter. CPO revenues fell due to lower spending in Asia-Pacific. Annualized CPO spending surpassed $7 billion for the first time.

CPO represents more than 50 percent of ON spending. The data center is the new central office, and operators are refreshing network technology to address changing traffic patterns as the steady march to IP continues.

http://www.telecomlead.com/telecom-equipment/huawei-leads-optical-networking-space-21-percent-market-share-q3-ovum-94655/